gordon smith vs. barack obama.

[Smash255]

Phil,  to go back to an argument you and I have had regarding your state.  Do you still think a conservative Republican in the mold of Toomey or Santorum can still win the state?  Or have you finally realized that a conservative in that mold would get demolished in suburban Philly, and you can't win statewide getting slammed in the Philly suburbs?

[Smash255]

Phil,  to go back to an argument you and I have had regarding your state.  Do you still think a conservative Republican in the mold of Toomey or Santorum can still win the state?  Or have you finally realized that a conservative in that mold would get demolished in suburban Philly, and you can't win statewide getting slammed in the Philly suburbs?

This is exactly the bullshit I'm talking about. How am I supposed to have a normal conversation with someone when they phrase their point like you did, Smash? Once I give the answer you don't like (which you are obviously expecting), you'll simply repeat (probably about six times in one post) your usual talking points and we'll have a circular argument for a good day or two. Please prove me wrong though. Please finally be the one to say "We'll agree to disagree" instead of battling it out and getting absolutely no where.

Yes, someone in that mold can still win. If anything, Obama is just as liberal as Santorum and Toomey are conservative. Don't try to feed me any nonsense about Obama being a centrist or center-left. Yes, I know you disagree but we've done this countless times so just do me a favor and give it a rest.

After being wrong several times on your state I wanted to see if that changed your mind on how you viewed your state, especially with what has gone on in suburban Philly the last few years.  Perhaps I came off a little sarcastic, but that wasn't exactly my intent. 

[Smash255]

After being wrong several times on your state I wanted to see if that changed your mind on how you viewed your state, especially with what has gone on in suburban Philly the last few years.  Perhaps I came off a little sarcastic, but that wasn't exactly my intent. 

If we want to get technical, Smash, I don't know how I was really wrong about my state several times. I predicted one statewide race wrong. I had Santorum winning in 2006 but also had Rendell winning and had Obama winning in 2008. When it came down to the actual predictions, I have one statewide race wrong. One. But you'll continue to be just as disingenous as everyone else and feed into the myth that I've been wrong about PA "several times."

Well you were WAYY off in 06 with Santorum, and in 08 you had McCain up most of the way (without a shred of evidence to support it) and even when you did decide to believe Obama was going to win you thought it was going to be quite a bit closer than it was.  Your predictions of what was going to happen with the margins in SEPA has been very poor.

[Smash255]

Well you were WAYY off in 06 with Santorum, and in 08 you had McCain up most of the way (without a shred of evidence to support it) and even when you did decide to believe Obama was going to win you thought it was going to be quite a bit closer than it was.  Your predictions of what was going to happen with the margins in SEPA has been very poor.

Without a shred of evidence? Haha, ok. Dude, this is pointless. Yeah, I did think PA would be closer than a ten point margin. So did most people.

You have one wrong statewide prediction, Smash. One. Let's be a big boy and admit that my record isn't as bad as you and almost everyone else makes it out to be. So let's stop saying how I've been wrong "several times" about my state.

Thats like Zogby saying he didn't get something wrong because he picked the winner correctly when he said the margin would be 2 and it was 10.  Did other people think it would be closer?  Yes, did most of those having McCain winning most of the way through and then when suggest Obama would win think it would be really close?  No, and JJ doesn't count.   Fact of the matter is, its more than just the predictions as a whole, but the overall analysis of those predictions which have been really poor, this is especially true in your own region of the state (SEPA)

[Smash255]

Yes, did most of those having McCain winning most of the way through and then when suggest Obama would win think it would be really close?  No, and JJ doesn't count.

It really wasn't assinine to have McCain winning the state up until the economic crisis but whatever. You're such a hard head that I won't even bother.

   

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Oh, right, right, right. Not the predictions as a whole...because I called you out on exagerrating my prediction record.

And no, I haven't had a really poor record with my own region of the state. I guess my record is "really poor" because I don't subscribe to your nonsense that a Republican must win the SE to win statewide.

As far as before the economic crisis you made that prediction when not even a shred of evidence pointed toward it.  As far as the general prediction saying something is going to be close and it winds up being double digits, is not an accurate or correct prediction.  Just because Zogby might try to make it so doesn't.

As far as the SE argument goes, the math just isn't there for a Republican to lose by a decent amount in suburban Philly and win statewide.  The math just isn't there to support that argument.  And fact of the matter is the voters in suburban Philly simply aren't going to support a Toomey or Santorum type of Republican anymore.  They may have in the past, but those days are over, and the GOP just can't make up the votes in the rest of the state in order to overcome the drubbing they would get in the SE from such a candidate.

[Smash255]

As far as before the economic crisis you made that prediction when not even a shred of evidence pointed toward it.  As far as the general prediction saying something is going to be close and it winds up being double digits, is not an accurate or correct prediction.  Just because Zogby might try to make it so doesn't.

Why do you keep blatantly lying? Without a "shred of evidence?" Really?

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Hey, Smash, like I said about six times already, I've heard you make this argument enough times. I know you like to make the same points over and over and over and over and over and over again but it's getting annoying. We got the point. Stop bringing it up. You know I'm going to disagree and that you will say the same talking points so why even bother?

You made those claims when McCain wasn't even ahead in a single poll.  You basically tried to point to people in you heard about neighborhood not voting for Obama because he was black.  That isn't any kind of real evidence.

As far as the same talking points, your right I do bring up the same talking points and you have yet to give any concrete response.  You fail to explain how they can mathmatically make up for the drubbing they would take in the SE in the rest of the state.  Or you make the argument that they voted for conservatives in the past, so they can still at least be competitive in suburban Philly, when no current evidence suggests that is the case.

[Smash255]

You made those claims when McCain wasn't even ahead in a single poll.  You basically tried to point to people in you heard about neighborhood not voting for Obama because he was black.  That isn't any kind of real evidence.

You never cease to amaze.

No, it wasn't just what I heard in my neighborhood, genius. I've been over this countless times. I'm not doing it anymore. You're either too stubborn or too stupid to hear me out. It's probably a combination of both though.


 

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Yes, I have given concrete responses in the past. Again, you never wanted to listen.

Yes, there are examples of them voting for conservatives in the recent past. Hell, it happened this past year in a statewide race! It's simply not worth my time anymore.

I'll give you credit for not being a troll who personally insults/constantly harps on people when they're wrong but, at the same time, you constantly repeat your points even when someone asks for a simple agreement to disagree. There is no concrete proof on your end that a conservative will never win in SE PA again. That's something that can't be proven. We both have different outlooks as to what may happen over the next few elections and instead of acknowledging that we see things differently, you just keep going and going and going...

We're not going to agree, pal. Let's remain civil and leave it at that.

Fact of the matter is you had this belief that all the polls were wrong and the state was going to be more Republican that what all the polls suggested.  Fact of the matter is even after you finally admitted you thought Obama was going to win you were wrong, because it wasn't nearly as close as you suggested.

As far as the latest statewide race where a conservative won apples to oranges when compared to a race like a Senate, Governor's or Presidential race, which is what I was mainly referring to.   Also I'm not saying a conservative in the mold of Gerlach can't win in a major statewide race anymore, but the hard kine conservatives a la Santorum and Toomey.

I do agree that you never know what can happen down the road, however suburban Philly has shown very similar signs as other suburban areas across the country have. (outside the south)    That being the hard-line flame throwing social conservative is going to have major problems, and is likely going to get their asses handed to them in these areas, and its something which shows no signs of changing anytime soon.  Until that happens, I just don't see anyway that the GOP can win statewide in a major race with a Santorum type of candidate.  Yes its only a portion of the state, but the math just isn't there.  It would have taken a several point swing further to the GOP in the rest of the state to flip the state based off bush's 04 numbers.  However, thats only part of it.  At this point a Santorum type of candidate isn't getting within 3 in Bucks, isn't winning chester (let alone winning it comfortably).  You really would need a real HARD (maybe not quite, but almost along the lines of Eastern Kentucky) type of swing in some portions of the state toward the GOP in order to make up for suburban Philly.  But with that its something we can argue for hours and days on and, so I will agree with you and agree to disagree.

[Smash255]

Why would you think 2008 would be so different for PA? The polling certainly didn't suggest it.

Because Obama is far from the ideal type of candidate for PA Dems. Then, the economy tanked. Please don't tell me that you think Obama would have won here by ten if the collapse didn't occur.

 

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Like I said, I anxiously await the spin if he wins the Gubernatorial race. 

10 without the collapse?  No, but a 4 or 5 point victory or something in that range would have been likely without it.