Bob Casey

[Smash255]

I agree with Flyers on this.  Hoeffel would have defeated santorum, and close to the 8-10 range Flyers predicted.  It obviously would have been closer, but the difference between hoeffel and Casey is not going to make up an 18 point margin, nor it will make up 14 points. 

Doing some math for a minute outside of the Philly metro area (Phill, montco, Delaware, Chester & Bucks) Casey won by 8.8%.  Assuming that with Hoffel on the ticket the Metro Philly area puts up similar #'s as it did with Casey, Santorum would have needed to win the rest of the state by 17 points in order to make for his loses in SEPA..  In 2004 Bush won the rest of the state by just higher than half that 9%.  So in order to beat Hoffel, Santorum would have had to almost DOUBLE the margin outside of SEPA that Bush had 2 years earlier.  Umm no.

[Smash255]

Flyers, you need to get over this. Hoeffel would not have beaten Santorum, Casey was the right guy in the right time. We have a Democratic Senate, be thankful for it.

Hoeffel would have won.  SEPA would have pretty much been the same regardless if it was Hoeffel or Casey.  the beat down Santorum took in SEPA was so bad, that he would have had to win the rest of the state by 17 points in order to win the race.

casey won the rest of the state by just under 9 points.  Their is no way a 9 point Casey win in the rest of the state turns into a 17 point Santorum win if he faced Hoeffel, especially considering in 2004 Bush won the rest of the state by about half that, 9 points, in a much more friendly GOP year.  i do agree that PA-4 may not have flipped without Casey on the ticket, but the others would have still gone Dem, and Santorum would have still lost.