A quick DEFENSE of the FoxNews/OD poll...

[Smash255]

Their are problems with pushing the undecideds too hard, but their are also problems wwith barley pushing them at all (TIPP) especially in incumbent elections when undecideds tend to break heavily for the challenger.

[Smash255]

If what you are saying were true, millwx, then Fox would always have Bush up a few points on the national average.  So let’s look at some Fox/OD polls and the other polls that were conducted at the same time.

We’ll start with head to head.  All data is from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

IBD/TIPP (6/8-6/13)           Bush +1
Pew Research (6/3-6/13)  Bush +2
NPR/GQR (6/6-6/10)          Bush +1
Fox News (6/8-6/9)          Kerry +2

Fox was the only poll conducted on those  dates to have Kerry up head to head.

Quinnipiac (5/18-24)              TIE
CNN/Gallup/USAT (5/21-23)   Kerry +2
WP/ABC News (5/20-23)       Kerry +2
CBS News (5/20-23)             Kerry +8
Fox News (5/18-19)              TIE
IBD/TIPP (5/12-18)                Bush +1


This is a tough one because few polls have the same dates.  We can safely assume the CBS poll is an outlier.  Fox is either a point biased to Bush or picked up the time when things really were dead even.

Pew Center (5/3-5/9)           Kerry +5
Ayres McHenry (5/3-5/6)*     Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (5/2-8)                   Bush +3
ARG (5/3-5/6)                       Kerry +3
Fox/OD (5/4-5/5)                 Bush +3
CNN/Gallup/USAT (5/2-4)     Kerry +1
NBC/WSJ (5/1-5/3)              Bush +3

Fox does have Bush at the high end of the spectrum, but a lot of polls agree with them (* including a Republican polling firm.)

Let’s do one more.

CBS News/NYT (4/23-27)          Kerry +2
Rasmussen (4/22 - 4/24)          Bush +3
Marist (4/20-23)                        Bush +3
Fox News/Op Dyn (4/21-22)     Bush +1
Democracy Corps (4/19-22)**  Bush +2

Fox/OD comes in a hair below the average of the others (** including a Democratic polling firm.)

While there may well be a bias toward Bush in the individual approval questions, it does not show up in the head to head poll question.  At least, not until this poll.

Of course it depends on which polls you show, and in trying to show Fox as correct you takee a poll a couple days before the Fox poll on one grouping that shows it close to the Fox poll, but you take out another poll that goes against the Fox Poll.  

Gallup 6/3-6/6  Kerry up +6

Anyway the biggest reason in the poll Fox was the most Kerry favorable polls in the ones you mentioned was probably the Reagan factor bump that boosted the other polls, that Fox didn't have the same bump  because the bump seemed to come from the middle to end of the week

[Smash255]

Of course it depends on which polls you show, and in trying to show Fox as correct you takee a poll a couple days before the Fox poll on one grouping that shows it close to the Fox poll, but you take out another poll that goes against the Fox Poll.  

Gallup 6/3-6/6  Kerry up +6

Anyway the biggest reason in the poll Fox was the most Kerry favorable polls in the ones you mentioned was probably the Reagan factor bump that boosted the other polls, that Fox didn't have the same bump  because the bump seemed to come from the middle to end of the week

I said from the beginning that I would be looking at polls on the same days, and broke thatonly when there were too few polls available on the same days.  But I will satisfy you by bringing in the three previous polls which ended a few days earlier.

IBD/TIPP (6/8-6/13)          Bush +1
Pew Research (6/3-6/13)  Bush +2
NPR/GQR (6/6-6/10)          Bush +1
Fox News (6/8-6/9)          Kerry +2
LA Times (6/5 - 6/8)         Kerry +7
Gallup (6/3-6)                  Kerry +6
IBD/TIPP (6/1-6)              Bush +1

We all know about the LA Times poll.  Looking at all that polling data which one do you think is the outlier?  The Fox one or the Gallup?

In my four groupings you can challenge only one, and that one is clearly either outside the MoE, or pushing the top with Fox pushing the bottom.

The NPR poll should have also missed any effects of the Reagan bounce.

Sorry, but there is no evidence of a systemic bias or error in the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll.  While it is likely that this poll is off a bit in Bush's favor, Fox even mentioned the possibility last night, it is not from a built in bias designed to slant the news (i.e. LA or NY Times.)

I said their was some big errors with the latest poll, I didn't say the same errors existed in every fox poll, but I did find it interesting that in the polls with Nader Fox has NEVER had Kerry ahead amd that does lead me to believe their is ome inaccuracy.  Wheter its bias or not its hard to say Fox doesn't release their internals, but some things just don't add up especially with their last poll

[Smash255]

I said their was some big errors with the latest poll, I didn't say the same errors existed in every fox poll, but I did find it interesting that in the polls with Nader Fox has NEVER had Kerry ahead amd that does lead me to believe their is ome inaccuracy.  Wheter its bias or not its hard to say Fox doesn't release their internals, but some things just don't add up especially with their last poll

Lets see if we can se a systemic bias in the 3 way race then.

IBD/TIPP (6/8-6/13)           Bush +3
Pew Research (6/3-6/13)  Bush +4
Ipsos-AP (6/7-6/9)             Bush +1
Fox News (6/8-6/9)           TIE
LA Times (6/5-8)                Kerry +6
Gallup (6/3-6)                    Kerry +6
TIPP/IBD (6/1-6)                Bush +2

Throwing out the tiems poll, because it is the Tiems poll, we are left with Gallup as a likely outlier at +6%.  Other than that Fox/OD has Kerry higher than anyone.


Quinnipiac (5/18-24)                     Bush +1
CNN/Gallup/USAT (5/21-23)          Kerry +1
Insider Advantage (5/21-22)        TIE
Wash Post/ABC News (5/20-23)   TIE
CBS News (5/20-23)                     Kerry +6
Fox News (5/18-19)                     TIE
TIPP/IBD (5/12-18)                       Bush +1
Newsweek (5/13-14)                   Kerry +1

Here we have an obvious outlier in CBS, and every other poll being a tie or a 1 point advantage.  Fox/OD seems to be right on.

CBS News/NYT (4/23-27)              Bush +2
Marist (4/20-23)                           Bush +4
Fox News/Op Dyn (4/21-22)        Bush +2
Democracy Corps (4/19-22)**     Bush +3
TIPP/IBD (4/14-4/19)                   Bush +4
CNN/Gallup/USAT (4/16-4/18)      Bush +6
ABC News/WP (4/15-4/18)          Bush +5

Here Fox/OD is the lowest poll of hte batch for Bush, tied withthe CBS/NYT poll, who seem to usually overpoll Kerry.  

Yes, the clear bias in the Fox News Opinion Dynamics poll is clear to me now.  They have either been right on or underpolled Bush at the time of the poll.

The fact remains They are the ONLY Major pollster with more than a couple polls not to have Kerry ahead in the 3 way at any point.  Regardless even if their past polls haven't been far off their is some serious issues with this poll.  As I pointed out earlier Bush is up 43-42 in the "Blue States" in this poll.  That in itself shows this particular poll has serious issues.  If another poll showed Kerry leading in the red states you would be having a heart attack & be screaming bias.