2006 Campaign Ad Watch

[Smash255]

I am very close to switching my prediction on this race to a tossup Ford victory.  he is EASILY running a better campaign than Corker.

[Smash255]

My district NY-03  Dave Mejias ad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVVVpB9odPw&eurl=

[Smash255]

My district NY-03  Dave Mejias ad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVVVpB9odPw&eurl=

Im not familiar with your district.  Does Mejias have any chance?

King is still the favorite, but Mejias does have a chance.  He is a nassau County legislator in the 14th district (my L.D) which covers portions of eastern & SE Nassau.  First elected official to take on King, and most well known challenger as well.  Some of the pundits have moved it into the somewhat competitive category.  Rothenberg has it as Republican favored, Cook as likley republican and Chuck todd has it listed as #45.  I am currently volunteering for the campaign.


King is likley to win, but the race is competitive, King isn't sfae and Mejias can win

[Smash255]

King is typically thought of as being a bit too conservative for the district, but previous showings may have been flukes.

In 2000 Gore won the district by over 13 points. however in 2004 Bush won it by almost 5.

Obviously 9/11 played a big role there, but dethroning King will be a lot tougher than previously thought. Hopefully some lobbyist group gives King a really good offer before 2008.

Re districting did make the district a few points more GOP.  Added some GOP areas along the immediate south shore in Suffolk, and took out some heavily Democratic areas in east central Nassau (wealthy, large Jewish population).  However, no question Bush got a 9/11bump (Gore won by about 9 under the current lines) and the district is generally Democratic on the Pres level.  Clinton won in 92 by a small margin, double digits in 96.

[Smash255]

new Tester ad, solid as usual

http://youtube.com/watch?v=X0PpjajhXsc&mode=related&search=

[Smash255]

New Brown ad, strong response ad to Dewine's tax ads

http://youtube.com/watch?v=mSQyX49FWtE&mode=related&search=

[Smash255]

new Dave Mejias ad (I would have been in the crowd shot at the end if I didn't have to work)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0NQwvw2us&eurl=

[Smash255]

Its the richness combined with the pay raise freeze.......

...which isn't true.

"An Examination of Chattanooga Budget Ordinances For Fiscal Years 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 Shows All Have Language Granting Police and Firefighters Some Type Of Pay Increase." (Chattanooga Times Free Press, 9/27/06)

From what I understand the pay increases were minimal, far lower than what they were asking far, and far lower than Corker's increases.

[Smash255]

Can't find it on the net, but just seen an ad for my putzy Congresssman Peter King.  Pretty bad ad, all the ad basically has in it is a bunch of yelling from "Democrat" Ed Koch in support of Peter King

[Smash255]

new Dave Mejias ad on Peter King's staunch support of Bush on Iraq.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-o0_zZKJGk

King has a new ad of his own, pretty pathetic ad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hk300vFVFEY

[Smash255]

King ad trying to exploit 9/11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO5cmSAOKW8&mode=related&search=

The ad I talked about in which Koch yells

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5o7HCxqdhxA&mode=related&search=

[Smash255]

"Jacket" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DesFpGvlj8I

"Coat" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQWm7MUQhoM

If you haven't noticed by now, Santorum's ads have names that are totally unrelated to their message.

Claiming that Bob casey supports the terrorists is a bit over the top and a sign of extreme desperation.