Oregon Is Turning Republican

[Smash255]

This has more to do with liberal Independents not alligning themselves with the Democrats more than naything else.  As long as Dems have the advantage among Indpendent voters at Election time (which they have, and recent elections show that advanatge is growing) it doesn't really matter.

[Smash255]

This has more to do with liberal Independents not alligning themselves with the Democrats more than naything else.  As long as Dems have the advantage among Indpendent voters at Election time (which they have, and recent elections show that advanatge is growing) it doesn't really matter.

Exactly.

Democrats are losing the rural working-class voterbase.  Morrow County, which voted 2-to-1 Bush, recently had a Democratic registration advantage.  The new guard that will keep the Dems in power in Oregon is an increasingly liberal independent constituency.  This is also true in Washington.

This also explains much of the suburban mid atlantic & northeast, such as Long Island (with the 04 9/11 factor being an exception).  While registration here has trended more & more Democratic,which explains part of it, the reason the shift has been as large as it has is Independents use to lean Republican in their voting, now they lean Democratic by a decent margin.

[Smash255]

This has more to do with liberal Independents not alligning themselves with the Democrats more than naything else.  As long as Dems have the advantage among Indpendent voters at Election time (which they have, and recent elections show that advanatge is growing) it doesn't really matter.

Exactly.

Democrats are losing the rural working-class voterbase.  Morrow County, which voted 2-to-1 Bush, recently had a Democratic registration advantage.  The new guard that will keep the Dems in power in Oregon is an increasingly liberal independent constituency.  This is also true in Washington.

This also explains much of the suburban mid atlantic & northeast, such as Long Island (with the 04 9/11 factor being an exception).  While registration here has trended more & more Democratic,which explains part of it, the reason the shift has been as large as it has is Independents use to lean Republican in their voting, now they lean Democratic by a decent margin.

the 9/11 factor did not exist.

as lewis has explained, the 2004 returns in places like the long island were simply a correction from the skewed 2000 results.

Long Island was trending HARD to the left from 88-96, 2000 continued the trend.  04's results had quite a bit to do with 9/11.  Granted the National margin was a bit closer as well, but Nassau County was slightly closer in 00 than in 96, and Suffolk was a few points closer in 00 than it was in 96.   The trend against the National average between 96 & 2000

If you look at how it compares to natioanal average)
Nassau
1988 7.02% more GOP than National average
1992 .3% more Dem than National average
1996  11.11% more Dem than National average
2000 18.91% more Dem than National average

Suffolk
1988 14.06% more GOP than National average
1992 7.08% more GOP than National average
1996 7.19% more Dem than National average
2000 10.85% more Dem than National average

In both Nassau & Suffolk the biggest trends were between 92 & 96.  Nassau's 96 to 2000 trend was slightly larger than the 88 to 92 trend.  Suffolk's 96 to 00 trend was actually quite small and a bit smaller than the 88 to 92 trend

and for the 04 #'s
Nassau 8.08% more Dem than National average
Suffolk 3.4% more Dem than National average

This is no question a bump to 9/11, as both counties were more Republicann compared to the national average in 04 than they even were in 96.  And this is in an area where the Democrats are gaining more control on the local level, socially liberal areas during a time period where the National GOP has become more & more socially conservative.  Hell Bush did quite well in the five towns region (won parts of it) and in general did quite well in SOUTHWEST NASSAU.  This is usually a very Democratic area, LARGE Jewish population, and VERY Socially liberal.  No question that had to do with 9/11.  The 04 reuslts on LI were in no way a correction, but a bump Bush received here from 9/11 (look at what happened in Staten Island and much of suburban Jersey as well).  Many of these counties were not only well to the right of the 00 results, but to the right of their 96 results.

[Smash255]

True that the largest swing happened between 92 and 96, forgot to mention that. Of course, the thing about the single-issue security vote being a Democrat vote also applies in 96 - not in 92 though.
I think the main reason I'm not focussing so much on 92 and 96, though, is that Perot makes the results harder to analyze.

Granted, but supposidly (according to some of the pundits) that Perot took more votes from Bush in 92 than Clinton, the 96 split was pretty much even.  Which would make the 92-96 swing even larger.  2000 wasn't an abnormaility by any means, it was simply a continuation of a decade long Deemocratic shift, during a time the Natinal GOP became more & more focused on conservatism, especially social conservatism in areas that were already and moving further left socially.

[Smash255]

True that the largest swing happened between 92 and 96, forgot to mention that. Of course, the thing about the single-issue security vote being a Democrat vote also applies in 96 - not in 92 though.
I think the main reason I'm not focussing so much on 92 and 96, though, is that Perot makes the results harder to analyze.

Granted, but supposidly (according to some of the pundits) that Perot took more votes from Bush in 92 than Clinton, the 96 split was pretty much even.  Which would make the 92-96 swing even larger. 

Sure you don't have them the wrong way round?

Wish I could find a link, but from what I have read, out of those in 92 that would have voted for Clitnon or Bush without Perot in the race, the breakout was somewhere along the lines of 55-45 for Bush, in 96 it was more along the lines of 50-50.  Using Nassau County for example, without Perot, Clinton would have still won obviously, but it would have probably been closer to a 5% victory rather than a tad shy of 6 points.  In 96 without Perot, more than likely Clinton still would have won by a shade under  20 points.

[Smash255]

Smash, I agree that there was a 9/11 effect, but I also think that having Lieberman on the ticket in 2000 made New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and parts of Florida more Democrat than they would have been if someone else was the VP candidate.

maybe in CT, but I doubt in NY or NJ.  I doubt Lieberman brought that many more people to the Dems because of him being Jewish (the majority of jews already vote Democratic) or being from a neighboring state.  Gore won here by the magins he did in 2000, not because of out of the ordinary vote for Gore, or Lieberman, but the way the National GOP was moving combined with the sharp Democratic shift that took place here during the 90's.  During the 90's you really started to see a strong Demcratic shift among mid atlantic & Northeast suburban voters, this wasn't just in 96-00, (though thats when it really started in Fairfax) for the most part these sharp shifts started in 88, when many of these counties were Republican, by 96 many of these areas were quite Democratic, the trend just continued in 2000.

[Smash255]

I think you also have to look at the kind of Republicans Oregonians tend to elect.  through the 80's and 90's, both Bob Packwood and (possibly my favorite Republican ever) Mark Hatfield were moderate.  By today's GOP standard, Hatfield was a Liberal.

Correct me if I am wrong, but is Gordon Smith a fairly moderate GOPer?  If Republicans do well in Oregon, I suspect it's because they offer voters the same kind of candidates put forth in Maine. 

Would Jim DeMint, Sam Brownback or Tom Coburn get elected in Oregon or Maine?  I'd be very surprised.

Smith isn't Collins, chafee or Snowe, but he is definatley a moderate Republican.  Would say he proobably ranks 5th behind those  three and Specter, Smith is a bit more socially conservative than the others (against abortion, voted for the FMA, also against the death penalty.   Has somewhat of a Libertarian lean.

Coburn, Bownback & Demin would have no chance of getting elected in Oregon (statewide at least)

[Smash255]

Will Oregon become competitive in Presidential races? Bill Oreilly is always saying how Oregon is the most secular state, and it probably is one of the most socially liberal states, but I think a socially liberal to moderate republican could win in the senate or presidential race.

Oregon almost went for Bush in 2000 and was fairly close in 2004. So yes a Republican could win here.

Its moving the wrong way for the GOP to win.