Smash255
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Posts: 15,464
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« on: September 08, 2005, 01:34:28 AM » |
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Dems have an excellent shot in PA, good shot in OH especially if Ryan runs, decent shot in RI if Chafee wins the primary, in the bag for the Dems if Laffey knocks off Chafee. Ok shot at MT & MO, outside shot at TN.
Republicans have a fairly decent shot at MN, decent shot at FL if Harris is not the nominee, decent shot at MD if Cardin is not the nominee for the Dems (ok shot but unlikely if cardin is the Dem nominee, outside chance at NJ (Bush backlash could hurt them here)
One thing which will have a pretty big impact is Bush. If his approval is back around 50, probably will see little change in the balance of the Senate (even to a seat or so to the Dems) ), if his approval is up a bit higher possibly 1-2 seat pickup for the GOP, if Bush's approval is still hovering in the low to mid 40's a year from now, Dems could pick up 3-5 seats.
Overall at this point I pick a 2-3 seat Dem pickup
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