Westchester and Nassau

[Smash255]

Italian population between the two isn't that much different.  Nassau is 21%, Westchester 18%.  Nassau is a bit whiter, 64% to 56% in Westchester, and less Hispanic 15% in Nassau to 23% in Westchester. 

Median income in Nassau is a bit higher, but per capita income in Westchester is higher.   Education levels are similar, though slightly higher in Westchester. 

Also as was mentioned there really is no Orthodox Jewish population in Westchester, parts of the Five Towns area especially around Lawrence is very Orthodox.  Northern portions of Great neck and into Kings Point have a large Persian population, which swung heavily R when Bush was in office (southern portions of Great Neck is more Secular and Asian and still strongly Democratic)

[Smash255]

Being from Nassau County originally, it's changed a lot over the years.  It's not nearly as white as it used to be, but Hillary's luster did wear off a bit over the years.  Suffolk was the far bigger swing.  The biggest race in Nassau this year was the House race, the first time in a while it was a real horse race.

Where in Nassau were you from?


Suffolk did swing considerably more, which tends to make sense considering it has more of a white working class population than Nassau.  I can't pull it up now, but Newsday had a precinct map up, and it did seem like Mastic & Shirley had some of the strongest trump swings.

[Smash255]

LI map by Precinct

http://politics.newsday.com/election-results-map/?office1=105&office2=67&

[Smash255]

So traditional patterns basically held up.  What were the swings from Obama/Romney like?

Generally the upper middle class to wealthy areas swung to Clinton, the more working class mostly white areas swung to Trump  Some precincts swung 20-30 points either way.  Sands Point precinct went to Romney by less than 1 point, went to Clinton by 31.  Some Garden City precincts, although still strong for Trump, swung by 20 points.  A Mastic Beach precinct won by Obama by 18, was won by Trump by 22.  A precinct won by Obama by 5 in Shirley, was won by Trump by 29.  Another one won by Obama by 8 was won by Trump by 33.  There were a bunch of other precincts in that area which had very hard swings.

Found the other link I was looking for, you can pull up both 2016 and 2012

http://projects.newsday.com/long-island/politics/how-long-island-voted/

[Smash255]

This seems to just be following a trend that's been happening over the last 10 years or so.  Inner cities going even more overwhelmingly democratic and the inner suburbs going democratic, the outer suburbs going republican and the rural areas going very republican.  Basically the further you get out from a city the more republican it gets.  If it's a big city like New York or DC it takes longer to reach the republican ring around the city.  If it's a small city like Pittsburgh the republican ring is closeby.

Nassau and Westchester both border on NYC. So, in this particular case, your explanation does not apply.

Westchester borders the Bronx, Nassau borders Queens.

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Nassau County has a local/national dichotomy.  It is Democratic in national elections, but it has a strong local GOP that was the one of the last "boss-driven" organization in NY. 

Suffolk County is more Democratic on the local level, but less Democratic in state and national elections.

Both counties were traditionally Republican on the local level until the late 90's, though Democrats were generally strong in Long Beach, Glen Cove, Town of North Hempstead, Huntington and Babylon.

Democrats actually made the local gains in Nassau in the late 90's after the county's finances were in complete shambles.  They took the Legislature in 99, and Suozzi won CE by 30 points in 01.  They pretty much kept strong locally though much of the 2000's, though the Town of Hempatead and Oyster Bay remained very strong for the GOP.  Suffolk then hadd its move Democratic during the 2000's as wel.

The main difference is Suffolk generally stayed Democratic locally, while the GOP took back the CE in 09 (very narrowly) and then the legislature as well.  A bit of gerrymandering made taking back the legislature very difficult for the Democrats.  Now with the GOP back solidly in control, Nassau's finances are in the toilet once again, add in Mangano and Venditto's indictments and 2017 is shaping up to be a rough year for the Nassau GOP.

[Smash255]

Westchester's also a bit less white than LI, right? Also, it has more densely populated inner suburbs I think.

Westchester is a bit less whit.  The population density of the inner suburbs are similar, and Nassau has a little more than double the density Westchester does.