Howard Dean pours extra money into four red states. (user search)
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  Howard Dean pours extra money into four red states. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Howard Dean pours extra money into four red states.  (Read 4527 times)
Smash255
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« on: June 03, 2005, 03:30:26 PM »

Mississippi doesn't make much sense.  The hard core social conservatism in the state is going to hurt the Dems chances, even with how bad the state is economically.

North Carolina I can understand.  Raleigh-Durham continues its move leftward (it has been a liberal area for a whille)  & Charolette a very fast growing area is trending leftward.  Mecklenburg Co (where Charlotte is) went from 5.8% more GOP than the Natl average in 96 to 3.3% more gOP than the Natl average in 2000, to 5% more Dem than the Natl average in 2004. Part of it is probably due to the Edwards impact, but their is the leftward shift in a very fast growing area

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Smash255
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2005, 03:32:58 PM »

I support putting extra money in those states.  I also support putting money into other such "hopeless causes" as South Dakota, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, which, in case you didn't know, the last two have more registered Democrats than Republicans.
I think Dean hit the nail on the head with Mississippi, which also has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

The regristration only means so much.  Many of those registered Dems basically consider themselves Republicans, just haven't changed their regristration.  Much the same is the case in some areas of the Northeast, especially suburban NYC & Philly where the GOP tends to have a regristration advantage, but isl a Democratic area.  However I do agree we shouldn't be throwing in the towel in some of these areas.
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Smash255
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2005, 10:14:16 PM »

I should certainly think so- you seem to believe that Colorado will somehow become a Democratic stronghold overnight by 2008.

No, just more competitive, a true swing-state.



That's certainly possible, but Opebo has Colorado going for the Democrat in almost every imaginable scenario.

Colorado has been shifting leftward.  In 2004 it was only 2 points more GOP than the Natl average.  It will probably move even closer to the Natl average perhaps even on the Dem side of  the Natl average.  So if you expect lets say a 1-2 point Dem victory in PV it would be reasonable to expect CO to be Dem
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Smash255
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« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2005, 03:12:05 AM »

Dems also need to hold down the forts in the following:

Wisconsin-  Why is this state known for Progressivism such a battleground?

Minnesota-  see above

Michigan-  I don't see many shifts, but a McCain would easily win

Pennsylvania-  see Michigan, but I may also add a drastic GOP shift out in western PA.  I hope the Dem chairs in eastern PA get their acts together and pick a good Dem as Philly mayor in 2007.  Bad Dem press has hurt us.

New Jersey-  Dark horse for the GOP.  Philly factors have spillover effect in South Jeresy as well.  A libertarian GOP shift in policy could make this state competitive and right now the Dems are viewed as corrupt here.

Wisconisn has some conservative areas, but the state is pretty much staying where it is

Minnesota See Wisconsin.  If Dems lose here, we already lost the election

Michagin-  See above

Pennsylvania-  Western PA going more Republican, Philly suburbs becoming more Dem, tradeeoff = very little movement (just different county totals)

NJ-  if Dems lose here well then we are in big trouble.  (Unless Rudy somehow gets the GOP nomination & Moore is running as an Indpendent.  Too socially liberal to go GOP.  The only real chance is Rudy & no way he gets past the nomination.   
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