Regional advantage probably helps him in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Michigan. He's a perfect candidate for New Hampshire. So he basically starts with 238 EV (Kerry states + Iowa - Pennsylvania).
If he chooses Bayh as VP, he can probably win Ohio and Pennsylvania, and get 279 EV (Iowa becomes irrelevant)
If he chooses Richardson as VP, he can probably get NM and NV. If he gets PA as well, then he wins with just one more state (OH, CO, MO are possibilities)
The fact that he is Jewish helps him in FL.
