NY-4 Is the third time the charm for Frank Scuturro?

[Smash255]

And McCarthy's retiring.

Yep. I wonder if DA Kathleen Rice will end up running; she's clearly ambitious.

Without knowing any of the candidates I would rate this as likely Dem at this point, if Rice runs probably safe Dem.

[Smash255]

I'm guessing Nassau County Legislator Dave Denenberg (if he doesn't run to replace Fuschillo), NIFA chair and former North Hempstead town supervisor Jon Kaiman (though I, Believe he lives in Meeks's district) and Kathleen Rice would be the stronger candidates...


As for the Republicans Scturro is still in it... but I doubt he gets a clear field now...

Other Possibilities are, Former State Assemblywoman and Town of Hempstead Supervisor Kate Murray, Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos, State Assemblyman David McDonough, State Assemblyman Ed Ra and State Senator Dean Skelos

Kaiman was in the old 5th district (Ackerman's old district) but is in the 4th now  3rd now with Steve Israel (I'm pretty sure he lives in Great Neck).  The only part of Meeks's district in Nassau is the SW corner (Inwood area).

I think Kevan Abrahams is also a potential candidate for the Dems (Nassau Legislature Minority Leader) could be a crowded Primary, but the field likely clears if Rice jumps in.

[Smash255]

D+5 is pretty steep for a Republican. The only Republican to hold such a high Democratic PVI district is Gary Miller and he didn't even have an Democratic opponent. NY-4 actually got more Democratic in 2012, so that helps make it more Likely Democratic than anything.

Just as R+5 is for Democrats now (it seems to me that after 2014 there will be no more then couple of Democrats from redder districts). Would not it be a Long Island it would be Likely D for me, but on Long Island Republican candidates frequently overperform (look at state Senators from this area), while Democratic - underperform.

.
The State Senate is a totally different ball game than Congressional seats.. Long Island is considerably more Republicam in races for local races than it is for national offices. The only State Senate district on LI that is more Democratic from an enrollment perspective than the 4th CD is the 9th SD, and Skelos is very well entrenched (that SD likely goes Dem, once Skelos retires).  Not to mention Rice would be by far the strongest candidate on either side if she jumps in.

[Smash255]

I'm guessing Nassau County Legislator Dave Denenberg (if he doesn't run to replace Fuschillo), NIFA chair and former North Hempstead town supervisor Jon Kaiman (though I, Believe he lives in Meeks's district) and Kathleen Rice would be the stronger candidates...


As for the Republicans Scturro is still in it... but I doubt he gets a clear field now...

Other Possibilities are, Former State Assemblywoman and Town of Hempstead Supervisor Kate Murray, Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos, State Assemblyman David McDonough, State Assemblyman Ed Ra and State Senator Dean Skelos

I doubt McDonough runs considering he is 76 or 77.  Skelos is 65 as well, so he might choose to simply staty in the State Senate, especially considering he is still fairly powerful there.  Kate Murry and Ra are possibilites, Murray wouldd certainly have the better name recognition of the two of them. 

[Smash255]

D+5 is pretty steep for a Republican. The only Republican to hold such a high Democratic PVI district is Gary Miller and he didn't even have an Democratic opponent. NY-4 actually got more Democratic in 2012, so that helps make it more Likely Democratic than anything.

Just as R+5 is for Democrats now (it seems to me that after 2014 there will be no more then couple of Democrats from redder districts). Would not it be a Long Island it would be Likely D for me, but on Long Island Republican candidates frequently overperform (look at state Senators from this area), while Democratic - underperform.

.
The State Senate is a totally different ball game than Congressional seats.. Long Island is considerably more Republicam in races for local races than it is for national offices. The only State Senate district on LI that is more Democratic from an enrollment perspective than the 4th CD is the 9th SD, and Skelos is very well entrenched (that SD likely goes Dem, once Skelos retires).  Not to mention Rice would be by far the strongest candidate on either side if she jumps in.

We shall see. After all - most candidates for national office are local officeholders

Just because they vote for someone for a local office, doesn't mean they will vote for the same person for a national office.  Different issues, different dynamics.

[Smash255]

D+5 is pretty steep for a Republican. The only Republican to hold such a high Democratic PVI district is Gary Miller and he didn't even have an Democratic opponent. NY-4 actually got more Democratic in 2012, so that helps make it more Likely Democratic than anything.

Just as R+5 is for Democrats now (it seems to me that after 2014 there will be no more then couple of Democrats from redder districts). Would not it be a Long Island it would be Likely D for me, but on Long Island Republican candidates frequently overperform (look at state Senators from this area), while Democratic - underperform.

D+5 is no more easy for Republican to win than an R+5 is for a Democrat. With that said, the state senate is drawn to favor a Republican majority was pretty much drawn by Republicans. I'm not even sure if any Republican held Senate districts go as high as D+5. Federally, Republicans haven't been able to break through, not even in the more Republican NY-1.

Skelos's district is the only one that is in that range.  He is also a long term Incumbent (in office since 1982)

[Smash255]

Rice is seriously considering a run and heading to Washington to meet with members of Congress

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/nassau/nassau-da-kathleen-rice-seriously-considering-congress-run-1.6775276

(Newsday's site is behind a paywall)

[Smash255]

Nassau DA Kathleen Rice is in

Safe D

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/nassau/kathleen-rice-to-seek-carolyn-mccarthy-seat-in-congress-1.6905396

[Smash255]

Kate Murray is out.

Not surprising.  The Town of Hempstead has a very strong GOP machine which she has benefited from, but there is a major difference between running in a local race and national race in the area and the Democrats have the strongest possible candidate.  Once Rice declared this was over, so its not surprising she has decided not to run right after Rice declared.

[Smash255]

No its a D+3 district not D+5.

I think Cook is even confused.  He has the 2008 #'s at 55-44 but Obama by 8   Rounding can make it a 1 point difference such as the 2012 #'s of 56-43 showing as +12, but 55-44 a +8??

Regardless, once Rice declared this was over..