FL has been a GOP leaning swing state for many cycles. I don't see much evidence that this is changing. While NC has moved from safe R to likely R, I doubt very much it will move into bellweather status. Too many rural and suburban whites. Even more true for GA and SC. Virginia is a much more interesting case. So much of the state's economy is tied to the federal gov't. It's hard for a rabidly anti-federal gov't GOP to compensate. Would you vote for a party whose primary ideology is to hurt your area's main industry?
I do see potential for NC to move more towards bellweather status. Keep in mind despite Obama losing it this time around it trend albeit narrowly towards the Dems. With the numbers pretty much any Democrat will run up in the Triangle and Mecklenburg the state is poised to remain close.
Florida is interesting, due to the Hispanic vote. Due to strong Cuban support the Republicans have done better with the Hispanic vote in Florida than most other areas. However, the non-Cuban portion of the Hispanic vote has become a larger portion of the Hispanic vote and will likely continue to do so. Also the Cuban vote itself trended heavily towards Obama. Its hard to say how much of it was due to Obama or if they will trend back GOP with the GOP softening up on immigration. However, if the Cuban vote doesn't revert back and especially if they become even more Democratic, the GOP is in DEEP trouble in Florida.
