Trends in IL - GOP Analysis (user search)
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Smash255
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« on: January 22, 2005, 01:35:55 AM »

This is more or less the same story as Nassau County, NY. A corrupt patronage machine that used tired 1960s Agnewism to maintain control over suburban voters.

The way the self-important "moderates" ran the Illinois GOP (and the NJ- and NY-GOP) is telling as well. In fact, I'd say that their control was the problem:

GOP moderates, then, and to a lesser extent still now, viewed the GOP as an exclusive country club. Sure, they more or less shared the tax-and-spend (oops, I mean, "fiscally conservative") social liberalism of the Democrats, but they just couldn't bear to associate with "those kinds of people" who made up the Democrat Party base. Because of their social elitism, they long sneered at those rude hicks who voted GOP out of conservative instinct. In fact, they still do.

Great example from an interview with self-described Kansas GOP moderate on a PBS documentary about Nancy L Kassebaum's son: "The people to the left of me just need a little work; the people to the right of me are nuts." Indeed.

The social moderates' place in the GOP was unnatural; hence, the outright bribery and leasing of public office to cronies to maintain the moderates' position in government.

Not that a conservative GOP rule in Illinois would have been unbroken, either. Whenever the GOP suffers from a conservative rigor-mortis, they lose at the polls, as the GOP should. But the same sort of contempt for their voter base, Jacksonian-style spoils system, and, yes, immoral conception of politics would never have afflicted a right-leaning  IL GOP as badly as it had.

The Nassau County GOP simply became too comfortable.  In Nassau the GOP pretty much controlled everything (held the county exec's office for 70+ years), same thing with Suffolk County and most of the congressional districts on LI were Republican.  Things started to turn in the 90's starting when Clinton won Nassau County in 1992 as the area was going through some changes and becoming more socially liberal (going back to 1960 the GOP won Nassau every year with the exception of Johnson in 64, and it probably goes back further just can''t look it up now)  Suffolk still went to Bush in 1992, but barley (by 2%).  As the 90's went on the effects on the local level became a bit bigger, but the GOP was still holding on to the major offices.  By 1996  the shift was really on at least on the Presidential level as Clinton won Suffolk by 14% and Nassau by 20%.  As the 90's went on some of the Congressional seats started to slip away from the GOP.  The 2000 Presidential election saw similar results to 1996 in both Nassau & Suffolk.  As this was going on Tom Gullota's approval was dropping fast.  Things got so bad that his own party did not want him to run for re-election in 2001.  Because of his horrible management one of the richest counties in the United States had a junk bond raiting and was in big debt, and this during the most prosperous times in this nation's history.  Tom Suozzi absolutley DEMOLISHED Bruce Bent (won by a 2-1 margin in a county which has more registered Reps them Dems which is basically unheard of in a non-incumbent election).  Rick Lazio soon followed by winning the Suffolk County exec.  Over the past 10-15 years Long Island itself has gone through quite a tranistion.  The area has become more socially liberal and the machine Republican politics which dominated both counties politics for so long or no more. 

In 1988 Bush won both nassau & Suffolk by double digits and the GOP dominated Presidential elections on Long Island over the past 50 years with the exception of Johnson.  In the early 90's 4 of the 5 Long Island Congressman were Republican, and the Republicans owned the Congress on Long Island for many years.  As late as 2000 the GOP had both county executive seats for 70+ years.  Now Nassau has gone Dem in 4 straight Presidental elections, Suffolk 3 straight, 4 of the 5 Congressman from Long Island are Dems, both County executives are now Dems and will win re-election rather easily
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Smash255
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2005, 12:34:39 AM »

The GOP's problem isnt disorganization... its their hatred for their own party members.

They forced Fitzgerald from seeking another term and the forced Ryan out of the senate race.

Obama would still be a State Senator if it was for the GOP.

Ryan would have gotten demolished against Obama regardless, although not as bad as Keyes.  Point about Fitzgereald is a good one though
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