To sirnick
I disagree with your view because you're making the assumption Obama is still the same hope and change guy he was in 2008. That's clearly not the case at all. He has a real record now and he won't be solely able to depend on his rhetorical ability.
It's quite possible, Obama could still win VA, but he's not going to win IN or NC. He's also not going to be competative in MT either. Forget about the 2008 map. It was a once in a lifetime experience.
My point remains. A strong Republican candidate would start with the McCain states and bring back the fluke states of VA, NC, and IN. He would also be favored in Fl and OH. Just one other Obama state would be needed.
Of course, my premise assumes the Republican is not a loon or completely damaged. Having said that, I think the Obama campaign realizes the closeness of the map and that's why they tell Poltico and MSNBC on background they believe they will get solid challenges from Romney and Pawlenty.
I don't for a minute believe Romney or Pawlenty would win because I don't see them as credible, but the realities of the map show the race will be close. Also, don't forget Obama won tight victories, smaller than his national win, in Fl and OH. He did this despite going against a Republican nominee the party didin't really care for and despite having a VP nominee who appeared to be an air head.
VA wasn't a fluke, nor was North Carolina. North Carolina has moved very much into tossup category, and at this point Virginia is probably a lean Democratic state. The problem for the GOP, is the candidates that can get past a Primary, have very little appeal in the General. I think Huntsman is BY FAR the strongest GOP candidate in the General, but he has very little chance o winning a Primary.
Quite simply the GOP candidates that can win the states they need in a General, can't get passed a Primary.
