Siena polls four NY State Senate seats (SD3, SD11, SD44, SD48)

[Smash255]

They did pass that bill preventing the counting of prison populations in a district as people living there, and upstate should lose a couple Senate seats to the NYC area, so even if the Republicans get the chance to draw another ridiculous map, they're doomed long-term. The bigger problem is having to draw another compromise Congressional map.

Republicans are only doomed long term if you think the trend of the NYC suburbs voting Democratic will continue indefinitely.  The 2009 elections in Westchester and Nassau suggest otherwise.

The elections in 09 were heavily turnout based.

[Smash255]

The elections in 09 were heavily turnout based.

So were elections in '08.  And '07.  And '06....  Elections are turnout based.  That's only a negative when your base doesn't turn out as much as the other party's.

The Democratic incumbent Westchester County Executive lost by double-digits.  I'm sure that was just "heavily turnout based" too.   Republicans in New York state had nowhere to go but up after 2008.

I can't speak as much for Westchester as I can for Nassau, but Democratic turnout in 09 was anemic.  Bad turnout in one year doesn't exactly = changing of the guard or anything like that.