Just FYI - 2004 was 45D, 29R, 26D
There was no exit poll in 2002.
In 2000, it was 45D-28R-27I. (Sen race; Hillary Clinton beat Lazio.)
In 1998, it was 41D-34R-25I. (Gov race; Pataki won re-election in a landslide. )
In 1996, it was 42D-29R-28I. (Pres race; Clinton won Reelection.)
In 1994, it was 39D-32R-29I. (Gov race;Pataki squeaked by Cuomo.)
In 1992, it was 42D-32R-26I (Presidential Race)/ 43D-32R-25I (Senate Race; D'Amato won reelection.)
Shifts happen. The mid-term electorate is usually less Democratic and more Repubican than the Presidential year electorate. Republicans ending up in the 30s in NY mid-term elections isn't unheard of.
The Dems registration advantage is larger now than it use to be. It is currently about 25 points was about 20 points in 2000, 16 points in 96.
I agree that its not going to match the 50-26-24 08 turnout or the 50-25-25 registration numbers, but a 24/25 point advantage down to 9?? No way
