The idea that its 10 new Republicans assumes all states losing a seat will lose a Democrat. Unlikely. Ohio loses two, so likely one of each. Massachusetts' will obviously be a Democrat. New Jersey could go either way, I'm not sure which district is most at risk. If the Dems control NY's redistricting they could easily eliminate Lee and leave Peter King as the sole Republican in NY (ouch). Murphy is the most likely victim in Pennsylvania. Illinois will wipe out a Republican for obvious reasons, Iowa's obvious victim is Latham. Michigan's lost seat could be either party. Here redistricting will likely target Bachmann.
I think it would be easier to eliminate King without it backfiring in other seats (if Tim Bishop survives 2010, which I expect he will, then town meeting-gate will be old news by 2012 and he'll be fine taking some new Republicans as will Steve Isreal of course) than to deny the Republicans a single seat upstate. Remember when the debate here was whether the Democrats could limit the Republicans to 1 upstate seat without leaving a number of seats vulnerable in a Republican year?
Bishop's district likely will not take any Republicans from King. The districts do not border each other, and due to population growth Bishop's district will actually need to shrink slightly. Israel and King will likely flip flop a few areas (Israel's portion of Nassau, which is a Democratic heavy area will likely go back to King). King's district likely will need to expand a bit further west, likely into McCarthy's district (Freeport), and could swap a few areas as well with either McCarthy or Ackerman.
