2009 Nassau County Election

[Smash255]

I was delving through old threads and found the one Patrick made in 05, thought about bumping that, but decided to start a new one

Nassau County Exec.  Tom Suozzi against Ed Mangano.  Suozzi won in 05 by about 20 points, the race this year should be pretty much the same.

Nassau County DA  Kathleen Rice vs Joy Watson.  Rice knocked off 30 year incumbent Dennis Dillon four years ago, she should win re-election easily

Nassau County legislature 10-9 Democrats.

17 of the 19 Incumbents will be on the ballot.   Republicans and Democrats are each defending one open seat, Mangano the Republican is running for re-election, Corbin the Democrat who had ethical issues lost in the Primary.  Both districts solidly favor the Incumbent Party.

Competitive races
John Ciotti-R vs Nina Bastradi-D LD-3.   This is likely the one with the greatest potential to flip.  Ciotti has done well in holding off challenges in the past, but Bastradi is probably the strongest challenger, it is also one of the two districts in Nassau where the opposing party has a large advantage in party enrollment as the district has become increasingly Democratic, Suozzi should win here big.

Joe Scanell-D vs Chris Browne-R. LD-5 Rematch from 07 Browne put up a strong challenge, but fell short.  Dems have a slight enrollment advantage in the district, but one the GOP is heavily targeting, and was able to snag the Conservative line in the race which Scanell has last time, probably won't be enough to knock off Scanell.

Dave Mejias-D Joe Belesi-R 14th LD   This is my district.  Similar to LD-5 this is a rematch from 2007.  This is the other district where the opposing party has the large party enrollment advantage and is always the GOP's top target, this year is no different as the county and state GOP have spent quite a bit.  It will be close, but the GOP will likely come up short again.

Town races.  Kaiman-D TONH Supervisor and Venditto-R TOB Supervisor will likely cruise to another term.  The race to watch is Town of Hempstead Supervisor Kate Murray-R vs Kristen McElroy-D.  Murray has won previous elections in landslides, but Patronage issues as well  as her holding up of the Lighthouse Project has hurt her.  McElroy came out of nowhere last year and almost took out Kemp Hannon in her run for the 6th Senate district (lost by less than 4%, the 2nd closest of the 63 races in the state).  I think Murray will hold on, but it will be one to watch.

[Smash255]

I don't live in Nassau (Southampton, NY here -- fantastic local race for Supervisor), but everything I've read says that Suozzi -- whose family I know and like -- will win but by a much smaller margin than before. Why do you think he'll do as well as he did in 2005?

Kabot's DWI charge makes that interesting.

As far as Suozzi, the only thing that I have seen that might make it closer were internal Republican polls spouted off by Mangano suggesting the gap was cut a bit.  I can't say I put much stock into any internal polls from either side.  The only real poll I have seen on the race was a poll Sienna did for Newsday a few weeks ago which had Suozzi up 54-31.

It will probably be a bit closer than that, and perhaps slightly closer than 05, but not enough to make much of a difference.  Perhaps 14-17 point margin instead of 20.

[Smash255]

I live in Jeff Toback's district and I fear that he may be unseated by Kopel. Kopel has bombarded the area with lawn signs and other literature and has put Toback on the defensive about the energy tax.

I am 95% sure that Suozzi will win tonight something around 56%-43%

I'm not that concerned about Toback's district, although its one I probably should have mentioned.  It was actually a little closer than Scanell's district in 2007.  However, its a district which is a bit more Democratic,and the increased turnout from the county races should help Toback.  Also the county GOP, while they do have an involvement doesn't seem to be as active in this race as they are in going after Mejias and Scanell or protecting Ciotti.

[Smash255]

Wow, I am very surprised the way the Suozzi/ Mangano race is unfolding.  Thought this would be a walk.  So far in the Legislature all the Incumbents are head with the exception of the Toback/Kopel race.

[Smash255]

Wow, this Suozzi race is close.  Did he take this for granted?  I really didnt see him on commercials at all.

I saw some commercials.  This looks like its just a strong anti-incumbent night.  Look at what is going on in Westchester, Jersey being obvious, the fact that the NYC mayor race, though Bloomberg won is much closer than anyone thought.

[Smash255]

Well Republicans have retaken the legislature- it is only a question of how many seats at this point. 

Mejias is up 50 right now with 11 of the 56 ED's left, not sure from where.  Yaturo is up by 180 with 12 of the 61 Ed's left, though looks like the vast majority of them are from Glen Cove

[Smash255]

      COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,062 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D    99,738
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,228
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,282   109,248
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   104,404
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,094   109,498
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               8,901

        COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          49 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     5,280
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       568
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       236     6,084
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,079
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C       896     5,975

[Smash255]

28 Ed's left Suozzi up by 313

         COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,109 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   104,947
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,534
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,470   114,951
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   109,263
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,375   114,638
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,297


28 Ed's left County Controller Weitzman down by 609

 COUNTY COMPTROLLER
       1,109 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   100,873
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,231
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,714   111,818
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    95,958
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,451   112,409

3 ed's left Mejias up by 42

             COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          52 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     5,648
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       602
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       264     6,514
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,507
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C       965     6,472

[Smash255]

What will be interesting to watch if Mejias holds on is Denise Ford from Long Beach.  Ford is a Registered Democrat who caucuses with the Republicans.  The Dems haven't run against her the last two times, endorsing her both times, and she has worked with the Dems more than any other Republican in the Legislature.  How much will they target Ford to caucus with the Dems?

[Smash255]

One thing is for sure, comparing this to 05 when we had the exact same offices up for election, turnout was ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL and the biggest drop off in turnout look like they were in the Dem districts.

[Smash255]

Mejias up 92, 55 of 57 precincts reporting


             COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          55 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     6,033
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       629
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       286     6,948
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,834
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C     1,022     6,856

[Smash255]

5 ED's left for both County Executive and County Controller.  Suozzi up 425

      COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,132 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   107,361
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,703
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,568   117,632
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   111,719
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,498   117,217
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,497


Weitzman down 428

    COUNTY COMPTROLLER
       1,132 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   103,209
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,377
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,821   114,407
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    98,047
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,788   114,835


Looks like 3 of the remaining 5 ED's left are from the Town of Hemsptead, 1 from Town of Oyster Bay, 1 from Glen Cove

[Smash255]

Two Election District left outstanding.  1 from Town of Oyster Bay, 1 from Town of Hempstead.  Both are in Mejias's district.

    COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,135 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   107,612
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,723
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,591   117,926
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   112,015
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,516   117,531
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,532

    COUNTY COMPTROLLER
       1,135 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   103,476
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,395
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,839   114,710
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    98,301
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,843   115,144

  COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          55 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     6,033
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       629
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       286     6,948
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,834
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C     1,022     6,856

[Smash255]

Absentee Ballots will need to be counted, and 3 recounts seem assured.  The remaining two precincts were Republican ones

Suozzi up 227
             COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,137 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   107,777
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,735
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,599   118,111     48.10%
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   112,340
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,534   117,874    48.01%
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,552                3.89%

Maragos up 576

HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   103,646
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,405
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,846   114,897     49.88%
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    98,581
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,892   115,473         50.12%

Belesi up 28

 COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          57 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     6,219
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       641
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       296     7,156   49.90%
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     6,112
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C     1,072     7,184  50.10%

As someone who is a stronger supporter of Mejias, and have been involved in the campaign, really disappointed, however one thing to note Mejias did increase his lead last time once absentee ballots were included.

[Smash255]

Honestly, I'm really surprised at this results (not necessarily Mejias, which was close last time).

But then again, I did vote for Thompson, so maybe it makes some sense.

Looking at some of the other results I think it was a combination of ant-incumbent and low turnout.  Turnout in this case was just terrible.    Granted he will increase his total somewhat once the absentee's are counted, but right now Mangano has less than 4,000 more votes than what Greg Peterson had in 2005 (Peterson was the GOP challenger) and Suozzi won that race by 21 points.  Turnout seems to be off almost 20% from 05. 

[Smash255]

A recount will start on Monday which could last till the 27th.  Absentee ballots will be counted starting on the 10th.  All absentee ballots must be postmarked by the 2nd and received by the 10th so far 7,100 absentee ballots have been returned out of the 12,331 mailed.  450 absentee ballots are expected in the 14th LD, (the race between Mejias & Belesi)

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/04/suozzi-still-leads-mangano-recount-begins-next-week/

[Smash255]

A recount will start on Monday which could last till the 27th.  Absentee ballots will be counted starting on the 10th.  All absentee ballots must be postmarked by the 2nd and received by the 10th so far 7,100 absentee ballots have been returned out of the 12,331 mailed.  450 absentee ballots are expected in the 14th LD, (the race between Mejias & Belesi)

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/04/suozzi-still-leads-mangano-recount-begins-next-week/

So what do you think on the recount, Smash?  This really caught me by surprise.  I sensed some anger at Suozzi but from the usual suspects.  Well  anger does turn people out to vote more than apathy and I dont think it sat well with many that Suozzi was using this as a stepping stone. 
 

I am really surprised, by the results, pretty much everyone thought this would be a double digit cakewalk.  The fact that right now Mangano has less than 4,000 more votes than Peterson did in 05 shows how much turnout was off, and looking at the total votes in the various Leg districts, it looks like the Democratic heavy districts are the ones with the largest drop off from 05. 

As far as the recount, its hard to say, and the absentees without knowing from where or the party affiliation of those ballots.  Even though the Dems have a registration advantage in Nassau, I would bet anything that turnout on election day favored the GOP by several points at least, and the GOP will probably need something like a 5 point enrollment advantage on the absentee ballots to have much of a chance.  Barring the recount having anymore than small changes for either side, Mangano would need to win the absentees by 2% if the absentee ballots wind up around 12,000.

Based off recent elections IIRC in which the official numbers wound up being slightly more Democratic than announced on Election Night, I think Suozzi will hold on and perhaps Mejias will prevail as well, but with turnout being down so much its hard to really say.  The one district where turnout doesn't seem off nearly as bad as the others is the 14th (which is my LD).  Where the downturn in turnout really seems to have had the largest impact was the Kopel/Toback race in the 7th LD.  Kopel won with 900 fewer votes than Toback's 2005 opponent Katz, and Toback won that race by 9 points.  Granted absentee ballots aren't added yet, but that would likely be no more than 400-500 votes total between the two of them.

[Smash255]

Ugggh the crap is starting already, no link due to needing a subscription to view the site, but according the Newsday the current GOP minority leader (and soon to be Majority leader) has already started handing out huge raises to 5 members of his  staff including Joe Mondello's son in law...

[Smash255]

How Democratic do absentees usually lean in Nassau?

IIRC Obama's margin last year as well as Suozzi's margin in 05 & Mejias's margin in 07 increased slightly after the initial count on Election Day.   Considering the horrid Dem turnout, not sure if that has any relevance this time around.  I have read on a LI board that the GOP has approx 550 edge in enrollment out of the 7,100 absentee ballots that were returned so far.  Those who states that said they have connections to the BOE, but without any links to back that up you really have no clue if it was someone who was legit or completely talking out of their ass.   Even if that 550 total is correct, its hard to say if it helps the GOP.  The Dems do have an enrollment advantage of 37.97-36.33, but based off turnout it looks like the GOP had a several point advantage on those who turned out on Election Dau.

[Smash255]

According to Newsday unofficial recanvassing Suozzi's lead is down to 107.  This is just a part of the recanvass and not part of the recount which has started today.  The absentee count starts tomorrow.

[Smash255]

Update

According to the LI Press, Mangano took a 24 vote lead after the 1st day of recounting yesterday, and Newsday was reporting a Mangano lead of 39 as of 11 am.  The areas that have been recounted so far is the 14th LD (though no word on the Mejias/Belesi race) as well as Long Beach, and Suozzi's hometown of Glen Cove.  The 14th LD is generally a Republican area, while Long Beach and Glen Cove are Democratic.  The absentees also lean GOP according to the Long Island Press.

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/10/mangano-leads-suozzi-after-first-day-of-recount/


Obviously, this is not good for Suozzi, however keep in mind 2000 Florida's recount (after the Supreme COurt involvement when the media looked at it after the fact)  Gore performed better in the recount in the GOP areas of the state than he did in the Dem core areas of Broward and Palm Beach.  Also while the absentees lean GOP, it doesn't say by how much.  Dems have a little over a 1 point enrollment advantage in the county, but Election Day turnout clearly favored the GOP.  So the question is, is the advantage the GOP have with the absentee ballots stronger or weaker than what they had on Election Day.  The other question is, when were the ballots filled out?  Those that were filled out a few weeks before Election Day likely favors Suozzi, those filled out closer to Election Day will likely have a similar breakout that Election Day had.

[Smash255]

Update

According to the LI Press, Mangano took a 24 vote lead after the 1st day of recounting yesterday, and Newsday was reporting a Mangano lead of 39 as of 11 am.  The areas that have been recounted so far is the 14th LD (though no word on the Mejias/Belesi race) as well as Long Beach, and Suozzi's hometown of Glen Cove.  The 14th LD is generally a Republican area, while Long Beach and Glen Cove are Democratic.  The absentees also lean GOP according to the Long Island Press.

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/10/mangano-leads-suozzi-after-first-day-of-recount/


Obviously, this is good for Suozzi, however keep in mind 2000 Florida's recount (after the Supreme COurt involvement when the media looked at it after the fact)  Gore performed better in the recount in the GOP areas of the state than he did in the Dem core areas of Broward and Palm Beach.  Also while the absentees lean GOP, it doesn't say by how much.  Dems have a little over a 1 point enrollment advantage in the county, but Election Day turnout clearly favored the GOP.  So the question is, is the advantage the GOP have with the absentee ballots stronger or weaker than what they had on Election Day.  The other question is, when were the ballots filled out?  Those that were filled out a few weeks before Election Day likely favors Suozzi, those filled out closer to Election Day will likely have a similar breakout that Election Day had.

How can losing the lead, even when Suozzi's hometown was included in the recount, be good for Suozzi?

Oops meant to say not good for Suozzi, fixed it.

[Smash255]

Mangano has increased his lead to about 104 votes.

He will win this election, unfortunately. It seems inevitable. Even fewer machines are left to count, and Mangano's lead continues to slowly increase.

Will he or won't he win?

Newsday is reporting the lead is up to 430 .  Still have the absentees to count, but this looks bad.

[Smash255]

Interesting.

note to 2010 suburban Democrats: promise to lower property taxes

The sad thing is the GOP was successful on this at basically lying to the voters.  Compare and contrast the tax increases in the county taxes to the Town taxes over the past few years specifically Oyster Bay and Hempstead which the GOP controls.

[Smash255]

Interesting.

note to 2010 suburban Democrats: promise to lower property taxes

Which puts suburban Democrats at odds with their most important constituency - municipal employee unions.  It's the ultimate wedge issue for local Democrats.

I still don't believe Sam Spade doesn't see a wave here.  Republicans just didn't take control of the Nassau County Legislature and (likely) County Exec.  They won the Westchester County Exec race, control of Dutchess and Ulster county legislatures, Poughkeepsie Common Council, Stamford mayor, and a slew of ultra-local races in suburban NYC.  There's a tax revolt brewing, and it can't bode well for incumbents who depend on the Working Families party - a.k.a. the SEIU.

Any news on the 4pm vote tally?

Is Nassau tallying votes on a state and federal holiday?

Nassau was tallying votes today, they were expected to finish the recount today around 4 (no word yet on if they did or not, or if anything has changed from this morning.  The counts of the absentee ballots, as well as paper ballots are expected next week.

As far as any trend, one thing to keep in mind (though I can speak more for here in Nassau than Westchester or Dutchess) is that turnout was very low.  Turnout was off somewhere along the lines of 17% or so from 2005, and the biggest drops were in the Democratic leaning areas.