This is in direct contradiction of another Zogby poll.
His last national poll which showed Kerry up 5%, had Bush up only 4% in the south. (47% to 43%)
Now Zogby says Bush is up 15% in the south?
Which is it?
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826Results in 2000
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/election/0504nation/20irtalk.htmlPoll: South is sticking by Bush
Iraq setbacks notwithstanding, optimism rules; war on terror gets even higher score.
By DREW JUBERA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 05/19/04
Weeks after his nephew was killed while traveling in an Army convoy in Iraq, Ray Hartman prays for President Bush in handling the war. Despite his family's loss, Hartman believes Bush is doing the right thing.
"If we don't deal with this, our children will live with this threat of terror for the rest of their lives," said Hartman, 55, director of visitation ministries at First United Methodist Church in Shelbyville, Tenn., about 50 miles south of Nashville.
"The cost of freedom has always been expensive," he said. "It's not an easy thing."
A majority of Southerners seem to agree with Hartman, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters conducted by Zogby International on Monday and Tuesday.
While Americans have been rocked by the Iraq prisoner abuse scandal, terrorists' videotaped beheading of a U.S. citizen, and continued bombings and American casualties, by almost every measure Southerners tend to be more supportive of Bush's policies and choices and more optimistic than the rest of the nation.
Almost 50 percent of people polled in 11 Southern states approve of the president's handling of Iraq, while 58 percent of Americans disapprove, according to a recent USA Today national poll. Sixty-four percent of Southerners approve of his handling of the broader war on terrorism, compared with a little more than half in the national poll.
The approval numbers reflect Southerners' voting intentions. If the election were held today, according to the AJC poll, Bush would beat Democratic Sen. John Kerry by 15 points — 52 percent to 37 percent .
By contrast, the USA Today poll has Bush ahead by 1 percentage point, and a national Zogby poll taken last week has Kerry leading by 5 points.
'No ambiguity'
While recent setbacks in Iraq may have taken their toll on the president and his policies nationally, a majority of Southerners view them as temporary, even expected, difficulties in a long, hard fight.
"We probably shouldn't have left after the first [Gulf] war — we should have finished the job then," said Mike Patisall, 45, a commercial photographer in Alexandria, Va. "As far as I'm concerned, it's the same war. Just a little 10-year break in between."
Supporters trust Bush's stay-the-course leadership style, which many see as consistent with the Christian values he professes.
"When George W. says something, that's it — it's going to happen, there's no ambiguity there," said Dan Clary, 30, a Scottsboro, Ala., field engineer. "I think Southerners like that."
Jennifer Earls, 22, of Grover, N.C., a preschool teacher, full-time student and single mother of two, declared: "Patriotism is more embedded in people in the South. A lot of it has to do with faith — we're in the Bible Belt — and patriotism goes along with that."
Dissent often unvoiced
There are dissenters. But in a region that overwhelmingly backs the president, they often seem reluctant to voice opposition.
"It seems in the Bush administration it is unpatriotic to ask a question or state a different opinion," said Hardy Clemons, retired pastor of First Baptist Church in Greenville, S.C. "That scares me. I thought it was e pluribus unum."
Fewer Southerners approve of Bush's handling of Iraq than of the war on terrorism, becoming increasingly skeptical the longer weapons of mass destruction are not found.
"The reason we invaded in the first place was Saddam Hussein was 'doing wrong,' " said Stan Maddox, 29, owner of a Decatur used car dealership. "There was talk about weapons of mass destruction, but they haven't found any."
The graphic photographs of prisoner abuse by U.S. troops in Iraq upset Southerners. Yet most see the abuses as an isolated incident. About 58 percent of those polled hold the individual soldiers involved, and their military commanders, most responsible. Sixty-five percent say Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld should remain in office, though about half hold him at least somewhat responsible for the abuses.
"I don't think we'd want to start out with a new guy now, and as far I know, he's done a good job," said Tammy May, 38, a seamstress from Paragould, Ark. "If he had prior knowledge and didn't do anything to stop it, I might say [he should resign] then."
'A higher standard'
Many Southerners believe the prisoner abuse scandal, as well as other perceived setbacks in Iraq, are overblown because of Democratic politicking. Asked which parties, if any, have attempted to use the abuse of prisoners to their political advantage, 41 percent named the Democrats. Only 7 percent accused the Republicans, while 22 percent said both parties were equally guilty.
"It's nothing but the Democratic Party taking advantage of a situation in an election year," said Dinah Bane, 45, a bail bondsman from Gainesville in Hall County. "I'm tired of watching the news because of all this crap. The media is so far left that it doesn't get reported accurately."
Others worried the prisoner abuse would overshadow the beheading of Nicholas Berg.
"I am concerned that the American people are bothered more by the small abuses we've done [to Iraqis], compared to what [the Iraqis] have done to us," said Mary Barrett, 60, a furniture company supervisor in Tupelo, Miss.
But most Southerners say any torture is unacceptable.
"They shouldn't, we shouldn't. Both ways," said Myra Marin, 31, an Arlington, Va., mail handler.
But 40 percent of Southerners think the prisoner abuses were a major setback in the war in Iraq, and 76 percent say the United States has higher moral principles for going to war than most other countries.
"It's like a policeman or a preacher. You hold people to a higher standard when you step into that role," said Vickie West, 50, an adoption social worker in Greenville, S.C. "It's like saying you're a Christian and then drinking and stealing."
Vietnam? Not really
Most Southerners don't agree with comparing the war in Iraq to the Vietnam War — "Other than we've stepped in something we're trying to scrape off our boots and we're not sure how," said John Davison, 55, an unemployed Web site designer in Concord, N.C.
And 66 percent — including many who oppose the war — say the United States should not withdraw troops until a stable, permanent Iraqi government is put in place.
"We broke it, we own it," said Robert Johnston, a New Orleans lawyer.
Speaking of U.S. troops staying beyond June 30, when the Iraqi Governing Council will take over, Barrett said: "If the terrorists are still there, we should stay until they're dealt with."
"People forget 9/11, don't they?" she added.
Contributors to this article were: Jane Dubose, Andrew Mollison, Anne Rochell Konigsmark, Ron Martz, Mae Gentry, C. Richard Cotton, Tom Baxter, Lyn Riddle and Maurice Tamman.