PA: Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research Trump + 4

[Skill and Chance]

Setting the toplines aside because internal, this poll is consistent with a trend left in PA.  The same pollster just found roughly the same margins in PA and MN at roughly the same time.  It's the one swing state I'm legit optimistic about for Biden, largely because it does capture some core NE "everyone went to college" suburbs.

[Skill and Chance]

Setting the toplines aside because internal, this poll is consistent with a trend left in PA.  The same pollster just found roughly the same margins in PA and MN at roughly the same time.  It's the one swing state I'm legit optimistic about for Biden, largely because it does capture some core NE "everyone went to college" suburbs.

It's not an internal. It's a joint poll conducted by an R pollster, Fabrizio, and a D pollster, Impact Research, on behalf of AARP. They had a series of them last cycle, where they were decent but not amazing.

Fabrizio operates alone for Trump, that is a lot different than in a joint poll, which is a pretty common setup for neutral polls to give them credibility across the political spectrum.

OK nevermind then.  That's actually quite significant.  If this poll is in fact non-partisan, this puts it squarely within "Republican version of 2008" world. 

[Skill and Chance]

If Biden is up 1 in AZ he isn't losing PA, that's why I say stop worrying

Biden is up 1 in AZ in his single best poll of the past 6 months amid a sea of Trump +4-6 polls. 

Also, AZ has about nothing to do with PA politically.  It isn't really correlated with any of the swing states other than NV.