TX: Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation: Trump +12, Kennedy @9%, Stein @2%, Oliver @1%.

[Skill and Chance]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

There is no viable scenario where Trump is tied, ahead, or within 1%  nationally; and he isn’t approaching or exceeding McCain’s 2008 TX margin. So your statement is saying that Trump can never be tied, ahead, or within 1% of the national popular vote

McCain had a lot more support in the suburbs though. Harris is going to be double digits Biden, and Fort Bend, Williamson, and Hays are gone for Trump. Dallas and Travis are much bluer than they were in 2008. Tarrant is going to be close whereas it was safe R in 2008 and Collin is nowhere as red as it once was. Even if Trump improves in the PV I don't see him recovering much in these places.

Harris is very hispanic. There is no universe trump gets the numbers he did nationally and not improve in Harris. I don't see it flipping but it will not be double digits

This.  In addition, look at all the rural counties that were 65-75% McCain in 2008 but by 2022 voted practically unanimously for Abbott.  Cumulatively, they matter.