[November 7, 2023] Ohio Abortion Referendum Megathread

[Skill and Chance]

As I've mentioned before elsewhere on this board, voters have a strong tendency to default to NO on ballot measures, even on high salience issues like this one. This will be a tougher campaign than many are probably anticipating, even if it is likely to ultimately pass.

Do you think that's why Michigan's was only +13? (compared to Kansas' +19)?

I think that's mainly because Michigan is a lot more Catholic than Kansas.  In general, abortion referenda have been blowouts for the pro-choice side in the Plains states and close one way or the other in Appalachia.  In Louisiana, pro-life was a yes vote on the referendum in 2020 and it still outran Trump.  If there is ever an abortion referendum in Rhode Island, I would expect pro-life to outrun Trump (not by enough to win).  With this in mind, Ohio strikes me as the kind of conservative state where pro-life could actually win, but my expectation going in is a narrow pro-choice win.  I don't think it will be that different from Kentucky, though.

[Skill and Chance]

No usually outperforms polling. Still, Yes already being at 55 in that poll is a very good sign, and suggests that it will win by double digits if that poll is accurate. Even if the poll is off by its full margin of error and undecideds all break No, Yes still wins.

So worst case scenario according to this poll is Yes 52.5-47.5

The worst case scenario according to this poll is Yes 55-45.

I think this is taking into account the margin of error on estimated % Yes?

[Skill and Chance]

Surprisingly virtually no one, the Ohio Supreme Court has effectively rubberstamped the deceptive and distorted summary that will appear on the ballot:

Ohio’s Supreme Court ruled late Tuesday that much of the GOP-controlled state ballot board’s language to describe a November question about abortion is accurate, dealing a blow to the abortion rights groups that challenged the board’s description.

The sharply divided court said only one element of the description is misleading and must be rewritten. The justices ruled that all other elements that were challenged, including the substitution of “unborn child” for “fetus,” can remain.

[...]

The court ordered the board only to change the phrase “citizens of the state of Ohio” to “the state of Ohio,” because it said the wording is misleading; the amendment would regulate actions by the state, rather than citizens.

Of course, the text of the amendment that was signed by several hundred thousand voters and would be the actual text of the Ohio Constitution uses the term "fetus", not "unborn child". So, just another attempt by Republicans to alter the rules to try to get the outcome they want. The high-profile nature of this amendment likely minimizes any effect this has on the outcome though.

Page 2 shows the text [PDF] that would actually be adopted. This [PDF] is the now-certified ballot language that voters will see on the ballot. The so-called summary is actually longer than the amendment itself, but apparently the text of the amendment doesn't stack the deck enough to the side they want to win.

Using fetus outside of a conversation between doctors and/or nurses in a medical facility obscures the issue.  No one else talks about their pregnancy like that.  This was a reasonable change.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... so far the EV looks really good for pro-life relative to expectations if this modeling is legit.  It's now only D+3 and only 51% female. 

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... so far the EV looks really good for pro-life relative to expectations if this modeling is legit.  It's now only D+3 and only 51% female. 

Given the crossover from Rs and Is though, any D lead would actually be great for the "Yes" side.

For Prop 1, "No" won by 14%, and the final modeled vote was actually still R+9

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714631664201015755

Right, but this is early voting.  EV being close would suggest a big R lead after the day-of vote.

[Skill and Chance]

How did the November abortion referendum compare to the August 60% threshold referendum by county?

Looks like there were at least some counties that were both pro-60% and pro-choice, generally in outer suburb.  Perhaps libertarian types worried about tax increases by referendum?

I think there was only one anti-60% and pro-life county.

[Skill and Chance]

The idea to strip courts of jurisdiction over abortion is bonkers. Like how would you even convict anyone of breaking abortion laws if the court has no jurisdiction?

Insane that Republicans would want to get into the business of state legislatures ignoring courts in this environment.  If this becomes the standard, possession of a firearm is going to be a felony in the West Coast and NE states in a few years and there will be nothing anyone can do about it.