CA-GOV 2026: Kounalakis (D) announces

[Skill and Chance]

She could plausibly lose in a Biden midterm.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems too early, who's paying attention to 2026 gubernatorial election other than political nerds? However, she'd make a good governor I assume. I'm fairly confident she makes it to the November election then.

If she's the Democratic nominee its hard to see her losing.

It isn't hard to see her losing. There might be two Democratic nominees.

Possible, though unlike in senate races, in every gubernatorial election since the adoption of the jungle primary a Republican made it to the November ballot (however in 2014 and 2022 there was a Democratic incumbent running for reelection without serious inner party opposition).

Yes, the whole "CA jungle primary = impending Solid South style D vs. D GEs for everything statewide" idea really hasn't materialized.  So far it's just been 2016-SEN, 2018-SEN, and 2018-LG that have been Dem only GEs, and that appears to have been the local Dem peak in CA. 

[Skill and Chance]

Seems too early, who's paying attention to 2026 gubernatorial election other than political nerds? However, she'd make a good governor I assume. I'm fairly confident she makes it to the November election then.

If she's the Democratic nominee its hard to see her losing.

It isn't hard to see her losing. There might be two Democratic nominees.

Possible, though unlike in senate races, in every gubernatorial election since the adoption of the jungle primary a Republican made it to the November ballot (however in 2014 and 2022 there was a Democratic incumbent running for reelection without serious inner party opposition).

Yes, the whole "CA jungle primary = impending Solid South style D vs. D GEs for everything" idea really hasn't materialized.

The Solid South was different, because it wasn't a democracy. The GOP is just unpopular in California. The Solid South didn't exist because Republicans were unpopular, it existed only because of disenfranchisement.

That's absolutely true.  I meant it only in the primary as a GE "tantamount to election" context.