Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Skill and Chance]

The pro-life abortion amendment is trailing Rand Paul by 5-10% in the rural eastern counties so far.

[Skill and Chance]

The pro-life abortion amendment is trailing Rand Paul by 5-10% in the rural eastern counties so far.

If those numbers hold, I think it will pass, but I'm definitely going to be tracking that variance as we get into more suburban areas.

Yes, the big question is whether it trails Paul by 10 or by 20+ in the big suburban Republican counties.

[Skill and Chance]

Is the KY amendment NO for pro-choice or YES for pro-choice

No is pro-choice,Yes is pro-life.  Opposite of Michigan. 

[Skill and Chance]

Jefferson County, KY (Louisville) currently looks better than 2020 for Dems.  Is it all early vote?  I think KY counts early votes first?

[Skill and Chance]

The KY pro-life amendment continues to trail Rand Paul by about 10% everywhere, including in Jefferson (downtown Louisville).

[Skill and Chance]

Are these mail votes in Indiana?

This is important to figure out, because Indiana looks surprisingly pro-Dem so far.

[Skill and Chance]

So it looks like we are heading for a Texas in the 2000's level R win in Florida now?

[Skill and Chance]

Florida:
Over 95% in
Rubio 58-41
Desantis 60-40

Cry harder libs. You’re finished.

Just like California was Clinton 61.5-31.5.  Matters just as much!

[Skill and Chance]

What is the outstanding vote in PA?  Mostly mail-ins or mostly election day?  Getting kind of close there.

[Skill and Chance]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

[Skill and Chance]

So what's the deal now in NV and AZ?  Looks like Hobbs isn't going to make it, but Kelly and Fontes are both still well ahead.  Masto's pretty far down at this point (it never showed a Trump lead statewide in 2020 during the counting process FWIW).  

[Skill and Chance]

That really sucks, this might go to recount territory. Seriously though these west coast states are awful at counting ballots and also reporting accurate remaining ballots

1. Colorado is ~500 miles & 2 states away from the nearest west coast state

2. It's not a true election results thread until we get folks complaining about the counting in CA + other western states the day after E-Day

Denver and mountain resort Colorado is pretty clearly an exclave of West Coast techie culture now though.

[Skill and Chance]

Is Arizona still lean Kelly? I'm nervous.

Masters seems to be underperforming Trump in the rural counties we have fully in. That's the same recipe that allowed Fetterman to win in PA.

Kelly just needs to not collapse in Maricopa and he should be in good shape.

[Skill and Chance]

Between Beasley, Crist, Beto, and LePage there was clearly a retread candidate penalty this year vs. the national environment.

Also, who would have ever thought we would be in a world where Dems substantially overperformed polling in general, but all those toss up Great Plains state polls were still wrong?

[Skill and Chance]

I am still bullish on CCM.

Yeah 80% sure ccm and Kelly have this

Really?  So the Clark/Washoe mail is going to be like 70% Dem?  I mean, apparently the late mail is nearly breaking even in the rurals, so maybe?

[Skill and Chance]

Election day-voting where you drop in a ballot box isn't heavily D or even D at all
election day drop off shouldn't be any skewed.
If these are from early votes - that's heavily skewed to D

depends on where the ballots came from.
if they all came from Vegas, CCM has a chance.

FWIW
Laxalt won election day drop box in Washoe by 10k

This is false. Election day drop box in Washoe has not been tallied - Republicans had a very slight registration lead in the ~18.5K ballots that were dropped off.

Interesting.  Washoe sticks out as being really R compared to 2020 right now, while the surrounding rural counties look in line with or left of 2020.  Sure looks like something very Dem-leaning is missing from the count there.

[Skill and Chance]

LOL the Democrats past 24 hours of orgiasmic celebration could come down to losing the House and Senate and setting up a GOP Trifecta come 2024.

Or D Trifecta. If you really can’t see the difference between a very narrow GOP control of Congress (and I don’t think they will control the Senate) and a “red wave” in terms of making it easier to flip going forward, I don’t know what to say. There is no guarantee an R will win the presidency in 2024, especially now. Very easy to see them losing if they either go for Trump or reject Trump for DeSantis after the two tear each other apart. And if it is a good year for Dems, we should be able to easily win back a few House seats. Although the Senate map isn’t as favorable for us in 2024.

Also, there were great results in individual states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, giving reason to celebrate no matter what happens. Just beating expectations is impressive for Dems this year, let alone managing to actually have blue waves in key rust belt swing states.

The Dem overperformance this year could have very important policy implications.  It nearly shuts down the GOP path to 60 Senate seats in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

Some napkin math

If there are 145k ballots left, and CCM is 23k votes behind, then she'd need to net 24k ballots for a 1k lead. So she'd need to win ~84,500 votes to Laxalt's ~60,500, or roughly 58% of them.

What % has she been winning those ballots so far?

I heard 2:1, but I don't know if that was representative of all the ballot types that are out there or just some of them.  If it's overall, she would pretty clearly win.

Note Washoe is very anomalously R right now.

[Skill and Chance]

Some napkin math

If there are 145k ballots left, and CCM is 23k votes behind, then she'd need to net 24k ballots for a 1k lead. So she'd need to win ~84,500 votes to Laxalt's ~60,500, or roughly 58% of them.

What % has she been winning those ballots so far?

There are still rurals too, but not a ton.

If I understand correctly, rural late mail is almost breakeven.

[Skill and Chance]

Very interesting in NOVA that VA-10 (McAuliffe +2 in 2021) was only 1% more Dem than VA-07 (Youngkin +5 in 2021).

[Skill and Chance]

California is considerably more R than it "should" be given the national environment.  Newsom is only up 57/43 currently.  Is this a mirage or another NY situation?  Note that the post-election updates today and yesterday have pushed the state more R so far.

[Skill and Chance]

Odds that losing the House because they didn't rig the maps as much as the other side convinces blue state trifectas to send independent map commissions to Venus?

With the exception of 1 or 2 states, the commissions were amended into the state constitutions, not just passed as laws.  It takes a referendum to amend the state constitution in every state but one (Delaware, which only has one US House seat anyway).  Redistricting commissions almost never fail when put on the ballot.  There's pretty much no way the voters would repeal one.  

[Skill and Chance]

Is Sisolak still in this?

Likely not.  That margin even looks a little dicey for CCM, she could be relying more on Washoe now.  

[Skill and Chance]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

[Skill and Chance]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

Like 3 people live in NV rurals.

Apparently a bunch of the urban county mail-in ballots will have to be cured to count.  That's the greater concern.