I'm feeling much more encouraged overall with every type of election happening this year. I still will come short of saying that we'll see a 2002 repeat or anything, but a clear Democratic message has developed in response to Republicans' message of "what do you have to lose by electing us?" And the answer is "a lot" and Democrats can seize upon abortion and the floodgates that the Dobbs decision has opened for shameless Republicans running all across the country.
GOP candidates became way too cocky about their views on other issues probably due to assuming a red tsunami based on low Democratic turnout, gas prices and inflation, but they can't walk back what many have said they wanted to do about abortion. Hell, I doubt some even bother and remain out of step with what is obviously clearly now the vast majority of Americans. Democrats will respond to that in alarm (at least in most states to Kansas' left) which is always a great political motivator, I am now mostly confident in that. Independents are still the grey area, referendums and voting for candidates are still two separate things, but if economic factors tangibly improve by November I think we could see them more willing to elect Democrats as different issues come to prominence instead, like reproductive rights or the potentially threatened future of contraception and same-sex marriage.
As for specific gubernatorial races I feel like Evers' and Kelly's chances went up-they are still the GOP's best chances for pickups and could still lose, but they have a foil now and a path through appealing to suburbanites. Sharice Davids, in particular, as it pertains to Kansas, ought to be better positioned now too.
Meanwhile I think I am finally convinced that Mastriano will lose, he is basically a living version of an even more extreme version of the Kansas abortion referendum as a Christian nationalist who is also a complete Trump flunky. Whitmer and other Michigan Democrats too, especially with their own referendum which will surely pass and galvanize Demcoratic turnout, are looking favored now too. I really thought Kildee and Slotkin would be sure losers, but they may end up winning now.
I remain unsure about how Arizona and Nevada will go, however. They'll definitely be among closest races of the night.
All other gubernatorial races probably remain holds for the parties currently in power. Upsets were possible in New Mexico and Oregon, but I think the possibilities of that happening has diminished. As long as Democrats run competent enough campaigns, of course, which is never a given.
I would suggest there's less of a barrier to R pickups in states where this issue is set in stone. Unlike the Trump 2016/Biden 2020 swing states, there's no way a Governor Drazan or Ronchetti is going to be able to outlaw abortion.
