What individual election results would have suggested Trump was re-election?

[Skill and Chance]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

If someone told you the Democratic nominee would carry Georgia, wouldn't you immediately assume they won the election?

Yes. I said most of them, not all of them.

Feeding in partial data from basically anywhere outside of Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, the DC Area, and New England would have led a model to predict a Trump win, but if you fed the model only those cities, it would probably predict Biden +10 nationwide.  Even in the swing states Biden flipped, most of the urban results don't look like "enough" for him on paper (Philadelphia, Detroit, even Maricopa being much closer than in AZ-SEN 2018)!

[Skill and Chance]

Most of them. The election really does look like a Trump reelection, except for the whole "Trump not being reelected" part. What a weird election.

If someone told you the Democratic nominee would carry Georgia, wouldn't you immediately assume they won the election?

Yes. I said most of them, not all of them.

Feeding in partial data from basically anywhere outside of Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, the DC Area, and New England would have led a model to predict a Trump win, but if you fed the model only those cities, it would probably predict Biden +10 nationwide.  Even in the swing states Biden flipped, most of the urban results don't look like "enough" for him on paper (Philadelphia, Detroit, even Maricopa being much closer than in AZ-SEN 2018)!

What model are you referring to?

I'm thinking of something like the NYT needle, but if it had enough information to run nationally in 2020.