There seems to be a weird misconception about NC in the sense that people think that it’s the rural areas that are keeping the state red by monolithically trending in opposite direction of the urban/suburban ones when it’s really the deep-red exurbs, most of which actually trended Republican this year, that are sustaining the state's R lean. Yes, the state does have rural/small-town areas that offer some encouraging signs for Republicans (especially in the Piedmont area, the Sandhills, and those parts of the state with a large proportion of Lumbee tribe members), but we’re already seeing the Democratic trend in places like Asheville and Boone spill over into other parts of Western North Carolina, including more rural/small-town areas (many of which are attracting more liberal out-of-state transplants, home to UNC, artsy, reliant on a growing tourism sector, etc.). The rural/small-town areas wouldn’t be enough to keep the state R at this point. Both GA and NC have had rural R trends, the difference is that Forsyth GA went from R+63 to R+47 to R+32 between 2012 and 2020 while Davidson NC went from R+40 to R+48 to R+47 during the same period; while Cherokee GA went from R+57 to R+49 to R+39, Randolph NC went from R+50 to R+56 to R+56.
Yes, it's not really a rural issue. The rural eastern areas that are moving hard right all have tiny populations and Dems are seriously overperforming in the far western mountains. It's the swath of blood red counties north of Charlotte with 100K+ populations that are keeping the GOP on top, and they basically don't swing at all. They have a dramatically higher population share compared to rural Georgia or Virginia.
