Supreme Court partially grants and partially rejects California churches request

[Skill and Chance]

For all the assumptions made about her from both sides (which, don't get me wrong, will probably end up being largely accurate in a lot of cases), the fact is that Amy Coney Barrett is the least well-documented Supreme Court Justice in terms of her exact jurisprudence since (at least)...David Souter.

While her background, statements, and previous rulings make it almost certain that she isn't actually a Souter and is very clearly on the conservative side, exactly where she falls within that side is very much yet to be seen.

Would Kagan not have had more doubts about her due to having never been a judge?
I am surprised by Barrett here as well as I had her down as most likely joining Thomas and Alito on the hard right of the court. 

There were early hints of Barrett ending up in the Kavanaugh/Roberts don't-rock-the-boat block rather than Thomas/Alito block (Gorsuch is his own libertarian block, but he obviously comes down with Thomas and Alito on these issues).  She joined a 2/1 decision on the 7th circuit upholding Indiana's COVID lockdown last spring, and gave a speech directly praising judicial restraint and indirectly praising Roberts in 2019.  She also has a longer history on the 7th circuit of being pretty deferential to the government vs. other conservatives.  At this point, I would be shocked if she isn't the 6th vote for severability in the ACA mandate case (assuming they reach severability). 

[Skill and Chance]

For all the assumptions made about her from both sides (which, don't get me wrong, will probably end up being largely accurate in a lot of cases), the fact is that Amy Coney Barrett is the least well-documented Supreme Court Justice in terms of her exact jurisprudence since (at least)...David Souter.

While her background, statements, and previous rulings make it almost certain that she isn't actually a Souter and is very clearly on the conservative side, exactly where she falls within that side is very much yet to be seen.

Would Kagan not have had more doubts about her due to having never been a judge?
I am surprised by Barrett here as well as I had her down as most likely joining Thomas and Alito on the hard right of the court. 

We (by which I really mean politicians, pundits, prognosticators, etc.) have seemingly overestimated how right-wing recent judicial appointments would be. I remember an ideological spectrum diagram from Kavanaugh's confirmation putting him just to the left of Thomas & well to the right of Gorsuch & Alito, which is (obviously) utterly laughable.

There was certainly some left-Souter risk with Kagan, more so than with any of Sotomayor/Breyer/Ginsburg because they all had established records as circuit judges.

This also helps explain why none of Trump's appointees have drifted off in a wild populist direction like many here feared.