PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Skill and Chance]

Given the trajectory of this race, you wonder who Shapiro may want/appoint as AG in his place. Would think Conor Lamb, especially with prosecutorial background, is the top choice.

That makes sense to me.  He's young and I would think he's someone PA Dems would want to give another chance to down the line.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

I think it’s usually thought that the governor race does the pulling. It holds the top position on the ballot, so it informs the subsequent choices. Shapiro might pull Fetterman over the line, but I don’t think Baldwin pulled Evers over the line. Walker was very decisive in a neutral state in a wave year. I think his performance was actually quite good in retrospect.

Either way, the gap between Fetterman and Shapiro will be overestimated by the pols. Whether that means Shapiro does worse or Fetterman does better will determine the Senate race.

Given recent history, I wouldn't be surprised if it means Shapiro does worse. By "worse", that would mean he would win by "only" 6% or so, while Fetterman defeats Oz by 2% or so.

Yes, there's a couple different scenarios here:

1. Undecideds break against Mastriano as he gets triaged, but toward Republicans in general (think of PA-GOV 2014): Shapiro +12, Oz+2, Republicans hold the state legislature, etc. 

2. Polling is understating candidates with the most working class appeal (think of 2016 and 2012 together): Shapiro +5, Fetterman +3, US House and state legislative Republicans overperform expectations

3.  Polling is understating Republicans across the board, possibly dramatically (think of 2020 or VA 2013): Shapiro +2, Oz +5, big Republican US House and state legislative gains

[Skill and Chance]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

[Skill and Chance]

Luzerne County BOE voted to not certify its results. Despite having a 3-2 D membership, Schramm voted to abstain, citing that "he wants to know what happens if the vote is not certified."

What a pathetic clown. Democracy is under attack and he treats it like a game. Disgraceful. If Democrats have any ability to kick him out they should do so as soon as possible.

IDK he might have the right idea.  It could be quite good to set a precedent on how to handle this before it happens in a seriously disputed election?