Georgia is Virginia 2008 without the crash

[Skill and Chance]

The main thing I question about the view of Georgia as the next Virginia is that in 2008 Virginia already had a Democratic governor and a Democratic Senator - as well as a new Democratic Senator-elect. Georgia as of right now has none of those things - though obviously the Senate seats there are still up in the air due to the runoffs. If we do manage to win one or both of those Senate runoffs then I'll be a bit more open to this comparison.

It could just as easily be VA 2006 if it's not VA 2008.  Let's see what happens in January.  I've always thought that once each office in GA flips, it's gone Dem for a generation or more. 

GOP chances in AZ look very different going forward.  It could be the new NV, but in the best case for Republicans where improvement with Hispanics continues apace, it could even be the new NC 2008.

[Skill and Chance]

The “crash” (which most Virginians were insulated from) has nothing to do with VA turning blue, and everything to do with George Allen’s dramatic implosion in 2006.   Which was the year that NoVA realized we hold immense political power.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html#polls


Look at the polling before the crash , it was a pure Tossup if not Tilt McCain

Ironically, the most likely outcome for 2008 without the crash would have been Obama winning the EC while McCain wins the PV!

[Skill and Chance]

The “crash” (which most Virginians were insulated from) has nothing to do with VA turning blue, and everything to do with George Allen’s dramatic implosion in 2006.   Which was the year that NoVA realized we hold immense political power.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html#polls


Look at the polling before the crash , it was a pure Tossup if not Tilt McCain

Ironically, the most likely outcome for 2008 without the crash would have been Obama winning the EC while McCain wins the PV!

Yup cause Obama was too strong in states like Iowa, Colorado , New Mexico to ever drop below 269 and since Democrats controlled the majority of state delegations then Obama would get elected(and that is assuming McCain would carry NH , NV)

Colorado was also well left of the PV, so it may not even come to that.  Obama gets 278 EV in a McCain +0.7 PV scenario.