CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Skill and Chance]

There is a ~40 day waiting period in the law from election day to certification to seating of the new governor.  If Newsom were to lose the recall, I presume Feinstein would be pressured to resign immediately and retire while Newsom could still appoint?

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the recall will either fail by 15+ or succeed.  Would be most surprised if Newsom narrowly wins.  It's either a "normal" CA election or it isn't. 

[Skill and Chance]

The 2018 Insurance Commissioner race is a good map to look at to when trying to predict benchmarks. 2003 was a long time ago and I think it's bit extreme to think the recall is going win 70%+ in Southern California and only narrowly fail in Los Angeles County like back then.

Poinzner's performance in the Bay Area was really strong though. My guess is that the Yes option won't fare as well there but it might do better in SoCal (if it ends up being close, obviously). But agree that 2003 numbers in SoCal don't look like they are possible in the post-Trump era.

Berkeley shows it getting 60% in Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside, but just 31% in the bay.

Yes, if it's close, this is going to be a NorCal vs. SoCal race, with Newsom winning but dramatically underperforming in L.A. County.

[Skill and Chance]

Vote by mail design flaw?

Evidently they're meant to help visual impaired voters find/see where to do sign the ballot. "They also serve as a visual check for elections officials to ensure that a ballot has not been left inside an envelope uncounted." I don't get this explanation because isn't it obvious whether an envelope has been opened or not? Some spokesperson then goes on to say voters can fold their ballots "another way" if they're concerned.

This is a serious problem.  Even if it's not intentional, this looks fishy as heck.

[Skill and Chance]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

Yes, the flip side of this is that these numbers look really encouraging for R's in trying to hold down TX/FL and win NV/AZ back. 

if you compare exit polls, No dramatically trailed Biden with Hispanics.  It was 58% No vs. 75% Biden!

[Skill and Chance]

No/Newsom performing notably better than Biden 2020 with college+ white voters and No only barely trailing Biden with black voters with Elder as the leading replacement candidate bodes well for VA Dems.

Interesting to note was the hispanics results, with hispanic men going 53-47 in favor of no. Trends are real?

Yes, the flip side of this is that these numbers look really encouraging for R's in trying to hold down TX/FL and win NV/AZ back. 

if you compare exit polls, No dramatically trailed Biden with Hispanics.  It was 58% No vs. 75% Biden!

Biden did not win 75% of Latinos in CA. He won 63%

The CNN exit poll has 75%.  Does a different exit poll have 63%?  63% sounds more like the nationwide number. 

[Skill and Chance]

There are approximately 209k VBM ballots left to count in Orange County. I think these ballots will favor 'Yes' overall, but by a much smaller margin than the in-person votes. We shall find out around 5:30 PDT

Weren't the "drop off/mail in the absentee ballot day of" group of people pretty R leaning in 2020?  I remember AZ and NC moved toward Trump with the latest-cast mail votes. 

[Skill and Chance]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

Orange likely doesn't flip (because much more of the vote is already in).  All the others likely do. 

[Skill and Chance]

Here's the current 2020-2021 swing map. Looks like the huge D counting advantage in Lake County from 2020 is holding strong while we're waiting for later results.

Interesting.  Suggests the path forward for R's is trying to make it Bay Area vs. everyone else.  Do you have this for 2018-21 as well?

[Skill and Chance]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

Possibly within California itself, but probably not outside of it. Note that CA swung the opposite way of the US as a whole at the last two presidential elections (2016/2018).

Not sure how important this is.  It's mostly explained by the ginormous 3rd party numbers in 2016.  There was likely a large Romney->3rd Party->Trump vote in CA.

[Skill and Chance]

Will Orange County stay in the No column? The margin somewhat decreased after the latest update.

If "all in person votes now counted" is accurate, it almost surely will stay a No county.

[Skill and Chance]

Riverside is almost surely going to flip now. 

[Skill and Chance]

Did any Feinstein 2018 counties flip to yes so far?

Every Feinstein 2018 county voted no and none of them look likely to flip. If you meant Newsom 2018, then Merced already flipped to yes and San Bernadino most likely will too

San Bernardino shifted from +4.0% NO with 60% reporting to +3.6% NO With 77% reporting. Won't come close to flipping if the rate of changes stays the same.

Riverside shifted from +4.8% NO with 62% reporting to just +3.4% NO with 76% reporting. If it keeps shifting at that same rate, it will be very close but still not enough to flip.

My bolded takes above now look to have been wrong, the late ballots were a lot more Yes-leaning than we expected.

L.A. county updates this evening, likely with a big pro-R batch of votes given what we saw elsewhere in SoCal yesterday.  L.A. probably falls below 70% No when this is all said and done, which would be a notbable underperformance vs. Newsom 2018/Biden 2020. 

[Skill and Chance]

So is No in San Bernardino likely to hold at this point? 

[Skill and Chance]

So is No in San Bernardino likely to hold at this point? 

Probably, the last big batch was not very pro-yes


I’m looking at the city level data in OC right now.

Whites in south OC swung heavy in favor of yes, but Irvine’s result was virtually unchanged from the 2020 presidential margin

My guess is that a decent chunk of Asians who voted trump actually voted against recall, due to their support for newsom covid policy.

For example, my precinct here in rancho Santa margarita was only 3 points below Romney’s margin in my precinct in 2012.

But Irvine was way way way to the left

This will be interesting to watch going forward.  NJ and VA are most Asian and 3rd most Asian states on the East Coast, respectively.   

[Skill and Chance]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

There was a Republican swing, but it was unimpressive.

[Skill and Chance]

Where did the new votes come from?

[Skill and Chance]

I mean which counties?

[Skill and Chance]

2018-2021 swing map, at long last.



Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

Techies doing mountain resort WFH?

This map overall is pretty boring.  You could make an argument that the Bay Area swing bodes well for NOVA Dems in VA-GOV, and you could also make an argument that the big swing in Kern/Tulare/Kings bodes poorly for Texas Dems going forward (this is the main oil producing area in CA), but both are a stretch.