It’s getting a little bit creepy how stable the model is right now. Biden has been at 77 for 7 straight days. It seems like there should be a little movement just by random chance. I’m surprised Nate isn’t tweeting worries about herding yet.
The model assumes pretty strong convention bounces that last for up to a month. Next week could be significant as I believe that's when Trump's assumed bounce finally goes to 0. The narrowing to Biden being only a 2:1 favorite in late August was because the model assumed a DNC polling bounce that didn't really materialize. I have a feeling it's overweighting the RNC as well and perhaps giving Biden too much credit right now.
