2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Kansas

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like the Republicans have veto-proof majorities in both houses, but presumably given the moderate-conservative split that wouldn't be sufficient to sustain a veto override?

Even if they all cooperate, Republicans only have the supermajority by one seat in the lower house.  It's pretty likely they lose it this year given that the realignment of the eastern suburbs is not yet complete. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article250672709.html

A potential Republican recruit to oppose Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids chairs the Kansas House committee that will redraw the boundaries of her district for the 2022 election.

Still feel fairly confident that kansas R infighting over small parochial stuff+ courts will stop it.

Even if the veto somehow gets overriden, there is serious PA/NC potential here with the state supreme court being effectively 5D/2R!

[Skill and Chance]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

Given that they appear to have veto-proof support for a mild gerrymander, an R trifecta map would presumably have all 4 districts being at least Trump+5 in 2020, and quite possibly a full blown Wyandotte to KS-01 with the western rurals configuration.

[Skill and Chance]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

Given that they appear to have veto-proof support for a mild gerrymander, an R trifecta map would presumably have all 4 districts being at least Trump+5 in 2020, and quite possibly a full blown Wyandotte to KS-01 with the western rurals configuration.

I wouldn't be so certain about the veto-proof bit, but otherwise yeah, you're probably right. However Kansas does have a constitutional provision against splitting municipalities for partisan gain I believe which somewhat limits what they could have done. I think it's why they didn't split Johnson

Maybe, but Kelly has appointed 3 of the 7 justices on the state supreme court.  It looks like the 2018 election was the difference between a 5D/2R and a 5R/2D court (though this is less explicit in the KS system than, say, the NC or TX systems).

[Skill and Chance]

Notably while the senate had a working supermajority - their additional votes were just absent - the state house does not. They lost several R's and are 5 votes short of an override. So this is likely the death of Ad Astra.

Wow, interesting turn of events.  Dems will have a say after all.

[Skill and Chance]

Not very surprising news, but good news nonetheless.
The fact Rs don't seem to have the votes to get this past override changes things considerably.

Kansas politics are weird, in some ways it's like the late 20th century Dem legislatures in the South where like 25% of the Dems opposed the national party. 

[Skill and Chance]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

Umm they’re almost the same - and actually Kansas Republicans have bigger numbers

Maryland

State House of Reps • 99 DEM - 42 GOP • (70% Dem)

State Senate • 32 DEM - 15 GOP • (68% Dem)

Kansas

State House of Reps • 86 GOP - 39 DEM • (68% GOP)

State Senate • 29 GOP - 11 DEM • (73% GOP)

My mistake (but then Phips' comment explains it, then - MD Democrats' majority comfortably clears the MD override threshold, whereas KS Republicans' majority clears the KS override threshold more narrowly).

A less meaningful but additional piece of the puzzle is that the smaller the chamber - and KS chambers are slightly smaller than MD - the more powerful a single legislators voice becomes.

Yes, the ridiculously small TX and CA state senates are perhaps the best example of this.