U.S. House Redistricting 2020: Nevada

[Skill and Chance]

This map is playing with fire.  All you have to do is apply the VA/NJ swing and this is a Republican sweep next year.  On top of that, Las Vegas trended right in 2020 and they stranded left trending Reno in the GOP vote sink.    

Strategically, they should just pass a commission (with strong competitiveness/partisan balance criterion) while they still have control.  NV looks pretty gone in the long run like a lot of the old small state Dem machines.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm. Okay, that's a fair point. I guess I didn't realize just how unpopulated the Southern Rurals were. I know NV is pretty empty but DAMN that's really empty. I think I'd still argue that it's still better to have two districts fully contained in the core LV area, though. That might result in a very Republican-friendly map, but in that case I'd bite the bullet that Republican-friendly is the right way to go.

It's uninhabitable desert until you get within miles of I-80, basically.  Once you get to I-80, there are meaningful mining towns, but they still cap out in the 10's of thousands outside of Reno itself.  Even Carson City, the capital, is <60K.

[Skill and Chance]

Okay, from a quick look at DRA, the LV area (as in, cities of decent size clustered around Las Vegas, not the entire Clark couty) has enough population for 2.8 districts. The rest of Clark adds another 0.1, and the remaining 0.1 is all those Southern rurals. That's such a terrible configuration honestly. God I hope Nevada picks up another seat next decade so that problem will resolve itself.

That being the case, though, I do have to argue for two seats contained fully within the LV area proper. The 3-way crack Democrats did is still indefensible. Honestly, you could make a case for slight malapportionment, by splitting Clark into 3 districts and leaving the remaining one slightly overpopulated. That wouldn't be acceptable under OMOV, of course, but oh well.

Very unwise.  Dems start down that road and if it gets upheld, you end up with one Atlanta CD, one DFW CD, and one Houston CD at the next census.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my attempt at a hypothetical 5 district map.

There's 2 dem seats - 1 GOP seat and 2 highly competive seats. So in a GOP favored year, the map could be 3R-2D and 4D-1R in a dem favored year.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aa8634a2-5f9a-498c-8d0b-0885c0a75ffa

Hmmm... Dems would be smart to propose a commission before the end of the decade.  Ensures an all-Reno and at least one all-Vegas seat in the long run.

[Skill and Chance]

Gov. Lombardo has called for the creation of an independent redistricting commission in Nevada:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1617941809354936320?s=20

Unless approved by the voters, this is going absolutely nowhere.

Nevada can do constitutional amendments by initiative, but it has to pass twice in a row to take effect.   

[Skill and Chance]

Gov. Lombardo has called for the creation of an independent redistricting commission in Nevada:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1617941809354936320?s=20

Unless approved by the voters, this is going absolutely nowhere.

Nevada can do constitutional amendments by initiative, but it has to pass twice in a row to take effect.   

Yep. I believe RCV narrowly passed in 2022 and if it succeeds again in 2024 (which I believe it's favored to), it'll become law.

Weird side question, but if Ds get legislative supermajorities, do they have the ability to block something?

They have no power to edit it, but they could propose a competing amendment.

[Skill and Chance]

Gov. Lombardo has called for the creation of an independent redistricting commission in Nevada:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1617941809354936320?s=20

Unless approved by the voters, this is going absolutely nowhere.

Nevada can do constitutional amendments by initiative, but it has to pass twice in a row to take effect.   

Yep. I believe RCV narrowly passed in 2022 and if it succeeds again in 2024 (which I believe it's favored to), it'll become law.

Weird side question, but if Ds get legislative supermajorities, do they have the ability to block something?

They have no power to edit it, but they could propose a competing amendment.

Lol what if an Independent and an Anti-Independent commission amendment both pass on the same ballot? That'd be funny.

I believe precedence goes to the one that got a larger majority, but it's somewhat ambiguous.

The wisest thing in this case would be for Dems to propose an Ohio style "company commission" alternative rather than try to defend naked gerrymandering.

[Skill and Chance]

Gov. Lombardo has called for the creation of an independent redistricting commission in Nevada:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1617941809354936320?s=20

Unless approved by the voters, this is going absolutely nowhere.

Nevada can do constitutional amendments by initiative, but it has to pass twice in a row to take effect.   

Yep. I believe RCV narrowly passed in 2022 and if it succeeds again in 2024 (which I believe it's favored to), it'll become law.

Weird side question, but if Ds get legislative supermajorities, do they have the ability to block something?

They have no power to edit it, but they could propose a competing amendment.

Lol what if an Independent and an Anti-Independent commission amendment both pass on the same ballot? That'd be funny.

I believe precedence goes to the one that got a larger majority, but it's somewhat ambiguous.

The wisest thing in this case would be for Dems to propose an Ohio style "company commission" alternative rather than try to defend naked gerrymandering.

Lol. As shown above one can drawn just effective of a D gerrymander without County-Splitting and remaining true to city lines.

Ds are really lucky just how favorable Nevada geography is.

One or two giant cities is generally very good for Dems, doubly so if the rural areas are ranches/mines vs. more densely populated farm towns.  You see something similar in Colorado, and I expect the Arizona legislature will massively give out at some point this decade.