2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Skill and Chance]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

[Skill and Chance]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

There are safeguards:

-Districts must be contiguous.
-Districts must "utilize existing geographic or political boundaries."
-Districts should not "divide communities of common interest."
-Districts should "be connected by transportation links."
-Districts "must not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent or other person.

Otherwise, the Dems can draw whatever they want.

OK, so this sounds like a mildly regulated regime, think KY on the other side.

[Skill and Chance]

Welp, this is stupid.

https://twitter.com/dirquez/status/1440086339735670785?s=20

Why go all out and strip the GOP of committee assignments and make it absolutely open there is no intention of playing ball... to then adjourn?

Frankly baffling decision. Now we'll get to see if the OR GOP made their campsite reservations in Idaho after all.

I think I get it now. They gave three OR Republicans in the House better seats in the new legislative maps in order to entice them to stay today and keep quorum. If they decide to flee, the map drawing process goes to the Democratic SOS who I have to imagine also draws the 5-1 map, plus guts the legislative maps.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1440311639140495379?s=20

The SOS doesn't get to draw the congressional map.  It would go to court.  However, if after the SOS draws the legislative maps, Democrats take majorities big enough to overcome the procedural rule the GOP has been using, they could redraw the congressional map in 2023/25. 

[Skill and Chance]

Is Schrader an unpopular figure in his district?

Not super popular or unpopular afaik (he definitely doesn't have as strong a brand as DeFazio next door), but he has become unpopular with at least some of the Democratic base due to constantly threatening to thwart Biden's agenda in the House.

The most significant thing they did with this map was insulate DeFazio's seat from the relentless WWC R trend.  He goes from Biden+4 to Biden+14.

Schrader is used to having a swing district.  He will be in a considerably better position on this map than he was in the Obama era. 

[Skill and Chance]

So far Dems are beating redistricting expectations almost everywhere except VA and maybe CO pending the final map there.

Also the GOP is way more focused on state legislatures than congressional seats, which probably makes sense given that they were able to draw maps that held certain legislatures for the decade despite mostly losing statewide, while they lost the US House anyway when they finally came up against an R presidential midterm.

[Skill and Chance]

So there's going to be a commission on the ballot in 2022 with the authority to redraw in 2024 if the commission amendment wins?