NJ-2: Van Drew considering switching parties over impeachment

[Skill and Chance]

I wouldn't assume that switching parties will save the seat for him. We aren't talking about a seat in Oklahoma or Kentucky here. He'll lose a lot of the Democratic votes he gets here and will have to rely on gaining Republican leaning ones to get him through. Not impossible, but it's not that easy either.

Well, it's not OK/KY, but it swung right about as hard as Ohio did in 2016 and Republicans picked up a bunch of overlapping and nearby state legislative seats this year.  I think this areas is pretty gone for Dems going forward.

[Skill and Chance]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

Don't think he cares about the long run in the House.  He's probably eyeing 2021 NJ-GOV or 2022/24 NJ-SEN as a Republican if this works out for him in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

Don't think he cares about the long run in the House.  He's probably eyeing 2021 NJ-GOV or 2022/24 NJ-SEN as a Republican if this works out for him in 2020.

He has about as much of a chance to win a Republican primary as Parker Griffith and Artur Davis.

Trump could endorse an inanimate object in a 2X Obama->Trump CD and it would win the Republican primary easily.

[Skill and Chance]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

Don't think he cares about the long run in the House.  He's probably eyeing 2021 NJ-GOV or 2022/24 NJ-SEN as a Republican if this works out for him in 2020.

He has about as much of a chance to win a Republican primary as Parker Griffith and Artur Davis.

Trump could endorse an inanimate object in a 2X Obama->Trump CD and it would win the Republican primary easily.

Senator Luther Strange and congresswoman Renee Elmers agree with you.

Totally different. Elmers was endorsed by Trump before he became president and Strange was seen as corrupt by many conservative voters

Agreed.  Also there is a completely different dynamic in Southern states/districts with a very significant hard right block in the R primary that doesn't have any particular loyalty to Trump and long predates him.  The NJ-02 primary is going to be decided by people who only came to the party for Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

I feel bad for his staff... they came to DC to work for Democrats and their boss is pretty much forcing them out of a job.

Ehhh... they know this is a possibility in our system.  Ideally, party switches in between elections wouldn't be allowed, but we still formally elect individuals, not parties.  As long as he offered to keep anyone on who wants to stay, I don't see the problem.

[Skill and Chance]

It is interesting to me how few R->D party switches there have been in states/districts moving strongly D vs. D->R switches in states/districts moving strongly R.  Republicans got the Governor of WV to flip, but not a single NOVA legislative R switched parties this decade even when it was a one seat majority statewide.  That really surprises me.  I think the only place R->D has happened in recent times is in the Kansas legislature?