This is very different. You have 52R/48D, D+1 vs. today, but with Democrats somehow picking up
both seats in Florida while not really making any other meaningful progress in the Sunbelt and losing ground elsewhere.
In 2020, Collins, Tillis, and Gardner lost while Peters and Tina Smith won. Jones clearly lost. With Ducey, who is not running this year, being the R senator from AZ with Sinema, it looks like Kelly flipped AZ in 2020 (which would give Dems 50/50 control with a Dem president) and then Ducey flipped it back in 2022, which strongly suggests Trump lost to a Democrat. It's possible the GA special also flipped and then flipped back to Collins in 2022. So there was a D majority in 2021, either with 50 or 51 seats.
Speaking of 2022, Hassan loses to Sununu and AZ/maybe GA flip back in what looks like a mildly R leaning election, although it's clearly enough to give them control. Rubio apparently replicated Bill Nelson's "feat" of losing in an opposite party president's midterm.
Now, 2024... this map strongly suggests a Dem presidential win in Florida, which is probably enough for the Dem to win the election outright, but the results in the Midwest do not suggest a Dem wave as they were not able to hold onto any of the serious Trump margin seats. WV/MT/OH all flipped, but interestingly WI and MI did not and Sinema held on in AZ. GA and NC don't have senate elections that year, but ME does and the Dem won, which is encouraging for the Dem president.
I'm going with this?
