2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

[Skill and Chance]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin. 

[Skill and Chance]

It is an odd decision I think not to shore up IN-05 a little further. Hard to say if the existing trends in Hamilton County will continue as strongly but it seems at least plausible that Hamilton County will vote for a Democrat for President in 2024, at which point IN-05 doesn't look safe at all. The main strange decision is the choice to include relatively somewhat competitive territory, like Muncie, instead of super-Republican rural areas after taking out the northern part of Marion County. But maybe the IN Republicans are relatively anti-gerrymandering, recognize that this arrangement is more fair, and figure that if they lose the seat in 2028 or 2030 they will be able to get it back without too much trouble in the 2030 redistricting.

Yes, I'm really surprised by this.  R's didn't take the free seat here with near zero risk, and didn't even bother to pack the northern Dem seat with South Bend after they left it intact.  All the while, they've apparently decided to play with fire in TN as Nashville goes the way of Austin. 

I mean Im not surprised about the lack of a full crack although I am surprised they didn't make a Biden +2 district using the Democrat proposal from 2010.

Maybe they left South Bend out because they don't want to end up with Congressman Buttigieg?

[Skill and Chance]

IN-1 at Biden +8 could trend R and eventually flip. Problem is that by the time this happens, it's possible some of the new Trump +12 Texas suburban seats are D+5 and cancels it out. Who knows if maybe we have some backdoor deals like keeping an IN-1, MO-5 in exchange for a redder NM-2, MD-1.

I think a big factor in minimal change maps is incumbents not wanting  40% of constituents to be new as this invites MAGA challengers. 

Yes, the northern Dem seat could still flip by the end of the decade.  It had a lower margin for Biden than for Clinton, which is quite unusual for the Midwest. 

[Skill and Chance]

If only Senate Republicans would get on board with a gerrymandering ban and mandated independent commissions.

Ah yes, if only they would get on board to support MT-style "independent" commissions endorsed by Senate Democrats in every state — what could possibly go wrong with that?

But yes, fair point on the KS map/Court (they’d be dumb to gerrymander that state anyway).

1. They are making really dumb choices about where to take risks in the states where they have control (drawing a nasty-looking map with NE-02 only 1% less Biden and putting the excess Biden voters in NE-01 instead of NE-03, leaving IN-01 alone while apparently targeting TN-05, super aggressive stuff being considered in NC and maybe TX, etc.).  Even stuff like leaving AR-02 with all of Little Rock seems somewhat dumb.   

2. Dems are generally playing the commission/court game better (MI, PA, CO, NJ, MT, AK legislative, probably CA given several independent and Republican commissioners wrote essays that sound very woke).  However, the AZ tiebreaker this time donated to Ducey and R's could still game the new VA commission and hope the conservative-leaning state supreme court picks the R map.