Fox News: Trump tied or down by up to 12 (user search)
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  Fox News: Trump tied or down by up to 12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox News: Trump tied or down by up to 12  (Read 1532 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: November 03, 2019, 07:44:32 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2019, 01:12:08 PM
In December 2007, Obama was more known than Pete is now in a FOX poll - yet trailed McCain by 4 points (Hillary+1):

https://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/122007_release_web.pdf

Obama: 49-33 favourable
Hillary: 45-49 unfavourable

This is why I think the individual polls are all off.  IMO what would actually happen if the presidential election were Tuesday is something like Dem +3 in the PV regardless of the candidate, which would make the EC outcome almost exactly 50/50 (with the extra 1% of the PV coming from Trump only winning Texas by 3-5, offset somewhat by increased packing of the Trump vote in Appalachian/MS Valley states).
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