What will a future Democratic landslide look like? (user search)
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  What will a future Democratic landslide look like? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What will a future Democratic landslide look like?  (Read 2562 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: October 13, 2019, 12:45:08 PM »

This is what I would guess for an FDR 1936/LBJ 1964 scenario in the the relatively distant future (think 2040's).  The Dem is getting 60% of the NPV. 

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2019, 04:11:08 PM »

This is what I would guess for an FDR 1936/LBJ 1964 scenario in the the relatively distant future (think 2040's).  The Dem is getting 60% of the NPV. 



This seems like a plausible map, given ongoing trends. It would be something if the Democrat did receive >60% of the vote in Kansas, though. Of the six times Democrats have won the state (1896, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1936, 1964), they have never won it by more than a single-digit margin. Of course, they have won by double-digit margins several times in statewide races, such as in Sebelius's 2006 reelection as Governor.

So much of the political atmosphere there reminds me of when the longstanding Dem political machines in the South were breaking down during 1980-2010, right down to the de facto 3rd party caucus in the legislature.  Also note that R governors broke through before flipping other offices in most of these states.  A lot of people in Kansas are only voting R because of tradition at this point. 

The big wildcard is the South, particularly the more urbanized states.  Do Dems hit a wall after cutting the typical R margins in half like NC, or does it just keep going until they end up decisively Dem leaning like VA?  Georgia seems most likely to go the VA path as Atlanta is big enough to control the state outright.
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