2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Skill and Chance]

UM/Big Sky MT-AL Poll:

36% Kathleen Williams (D)
35% Matt Rosendale (R)
20% Corey Stapleton (R)
3% Joe Dooling (R)
2% Matt Rains (D)
2% Tom Winter (D)
2% Timothy Johnson (R)

http://bit.ly/2LVT06u

Why are they polling it that way?  It isn't Louisiana!

[Skill and Chance]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

I do think it's plausible that the Dems actually do pick up seats, mostly because their freshman class seems strong and because they have more guaranteed pickups than Republicans do (the two NC districts and TX-23 seem like definite pickups at this point).

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.  A Dem net gain would require something like every Republican-held seat involved in the Austin gerrymander flipping. 

[Skill and Chance]

GCB consistently looking less Dem than 2018 but strong enough for them to hold the House without much drama.   

[Skill and Chance]

In other news, we have a poll out of IA-01 showing Finkenauer up 4.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225887074798252037?s=20

Has Biden down by 3 in a matchup, and general the memo looks like an R internal (they "message tested")

It would be something if Finkenauer won reelection at the same Trump is carrying her district. What would explain the motivations of any voter who would split their ticket between Trump and a House Democrat, especially after impeachment?

Low name recognition for the challenger is one factor.

Let’s flip this around: what’s the evidence for House race results aligning perfectly with Presidential race results? We’ve seen it in the Senate once, but not yet in the House where it’s still not impossible to have an identity independent from the top of the ticket.

Polarization hasn't reached that point yet, and I would hope that it never does. At any rate, it's still surprising to me, that Trump voters would still be willing to cast a ballot for someone who is at direct odds with the President that they support.

I don't find this shocking at all.  There is a significant faction of voters who explicitly want divided government.  An "incumbent president +3" district will be a prime location for this.

I think the surprise result at the top of the ticket made things align more than they normally do in 2016.  If Trump had been favored for the presidency from day 1, House R's would have done considerably worse, and Kander and or McGinty might have gotten through with the divided govt vote going the other way.  If House R's started at say 225 and Senate R's started at 51 or even 50, the Obamacare replacement would never have seen the light of day, the tax cuts would have to be deficit neutral, and they might have actually done better in 2018.  The SALT cap almost surely doesn't happen if 5-10 suburban Romney district R's just lost.