In which states could we see a FL 2004 / NH 2004 "redux" in a close race?

[Skill and Chance]

I basically agree with yours.  PA could have been a one-time thing for Trump, but he's likely to improve in the rest of the Midwest and AZ is more likely to flip Dem than not.  GA has maybe a 1-in-3 chance of flipping, but it should be Dem for a very long time after 2020.

Florida could also be a surprise Trump+5 win, but South Florida makes this more uncertain.

It doesn't fit with your categories, but I could see Kansas surprisingly being only like Trump+8.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm curious how much of this forum thinks Trump will expand on his win in Michigan, or win WI by more than 2 points.  Thoughts?

Both are more likely than not.  The main alternative scenario is a 2008 style Dem+7-10 PV win in a recession, which IMO would look like this:

[Skill and Chance]

Michigan is interesting this time because it's more likely to be one side or the other winning it by 5 than it is to be really close again.