What would a Republican version of 1964 look like? (user search)
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  What would a Republican version of 1964 look like? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What would a Republican version of 1964 look like?  (Read 3693 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: July 04, 2019, 02:03:40 PM »
« edited: July 04, 2019, 02:12:34 PM by Skill and Chance »

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them? 



CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2019, 01:32:10 PM »

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them?  



CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.


Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2019, 03:15:46 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2019, 04:55:17 PM by Skill and Chance »

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them? 



CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.


Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.

I think it's I love incumbents day would cancel it out

Also, if this is a true Dem 1964, that means that 10-20 years later the political alignment would be religious left Dems with a Southern/urban minority base vs. a secular nationalist GOP with a rural North/Midwestern base.  A plausible close 2040ish election if that happens:



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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,815
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2019, 04:56:39 PM »

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them? 



CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.


Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.

I think it's I love incumbents day would cancel it out

Also, if this is a true Dem 1964, that means that 10-20 years later the political alignment would be religious left Dems with a Southern/urban minority base vs. a secular nationalist GOP with a rural North/Midwestern base.  A plausible close 2040ish election if that happens:





Would people like me be Democrats or completely disenfranchised by the system and non-voters/voters for some third party?

You would be unhappy in the way a conservative Dems were post-FDR or NeverTrump R's are today.  You would probably be a Dem-leaning swing voter by that point, going 3rd party if both the D and R are too economically left for you and abortion is a settled issue in your state.
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