Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Skill and Chance]

Tiffany is ahead 58.4%-41.6% with 5% of precincts reporting, per NYT.

Probably not representative, but that's almost exactly Trump's percentage in 2016.

[Skill and Chance]

lmao

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/

I mean, WI-07 wasn't bad at all.

No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.

It COULD be indicative of a blue wave, given that Dems haven't completely collapsed in the rurals like both sides were assuming.

lol

They lost by 14 instead of 21.

Sigh. As even the most cursory understanding of political trends could tell you, fast trending areas often solidify faster at the Presidential than local level. The fact that some ancestral Rs in IL-06 voted R for Governor in 2018, or that Tiffany underperformed with some ancesteral Ds, means absolutely nothing for the Presidential race.

Tiffany also got almost exactly the same % of the total vote as Trump.  The larger margin in 2016 was almost entirely because of the 3rd party vote. 

[Skill and Chance]

Not that it matters, but Los Angeles and Ventura dumped a bunch of their votes today and Garcia's lead is now under 10%:

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/special/us-rep/district/25

Christy Smith (D) - 78,234 (45.1%)
Mike Garcia (R) - 95,088 (54.9%)

Smith won both counties' batches narrowly.

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Los Angeles County also estimates that they only have 1,285 votes left to count, so the final margin likely won't be dramatically different from what it currently is at:

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1261453525629890560

That's strong enough that he can plausibly hold the seat in the fall.