2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Skill and Chance]

What do we think is the point at which the House flips?  Probably D+6.5 or so if we are going strictly by the R-held seats with the closest Clinton/Trump numbers.  Increasingly, though, it looks like there are enough Ojedas and McCreadys leading deep in Trump country to make it lower than that.  I would be fairly confident D+5 nationwide flips the House, and under the right circumstances, even D+3-4 could.

[Skill and Chance]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

There's enough Conor Lamb types out there keeping Trump districts competitive that I really don't see this happening. 

[Skill and Chance]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

It’s highly unlikely, that Democrats would win the popular vote by 7 points and fail to win a House majority. Although, with the final percentages tabulated in California, Democrats won the House vote by 29 points in the jungle primary and only outvoted Republicans in one of their districts (CA-49).

That's actually less than Clinton beat Trump by in CA.

[Skill and Chance]

Preference for Congress (Marist/NBC)

MI: D+9
MN: D+12
WI: D+8

July 15-19, RVs

Looks like Minnesota could have only one Republican in their delegation come January 2019...

Hopefully....Dems can always gerrymander that district out of existence too

I thought Minnesota has nonpartisan redistricting laws.

Nope, it's the standard legislative process with governor's veto, but there hasn't been unified control in a very long time.  2011 was D Gov/R legislature, 2001 was Independent Gov/D senate/R house, 1991 and 1981 were both R Gov/D legislature.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, 15?? I can see 10, but 15? Hard to see occur in any scenario

That is assuming Dems do well and perhaps take the Senate this year. Suppose for example Dems pick up NV, AZ, and TN in 2018, and all the Dem incumbents hold on.

In that case, seats that could be lost in a hypothetical Republican 2024 wave include:

NV
AZ
TN
NM
MT
ND
MN
WI
MO
MI
IN
OH
WV
VA
PA
ME
FL

That is 17 seats, and not even counting the possibility of the Republicans picking up a seat in a normally safe Dem state (WA, CA, NJ, etc).

The most likely scenario for 2024 is Dems winning an 8th year itch election after 2 terms of Trump.  The 2nd most likely scenario is a 1st term Dem president winning a pretty easy reelection.  I don't think the dam will break for all of the Trump state Dems in Class I until 2030.  And it's likely that Dems would be able to contest many of the Southern and Plains states that dominate Class II by 2026 or 2032 depending on who holds the WH, which could cancel out the losses.