Upshot: A ‘Blue’ Florida? There Are No Quick Demographic Fixes for Democrats

[Skill and Chance]

As one prominent Democratic strategist in Florida has stated, the Democrats need to gain 4 Hispanic voters to offset every white voter they lose to the Republicans. This means they still need to focus on increasing their white vote share in FL to about 40% or so (compared to Hillary's 32% in 2016).

This is why Florida is more likely to go hard right than hard left if it does move over the next decade.  Many of the FL retirement communities are already becoming pro-Trump political machines.  IMO this is also an underrated part of how the GOP stayed on top in NC.

[Skill and Chance]

As one prominent Democratic strategist in Florida has stated, the Democrats need to gain 4 Hispanic voters to offset every white voter they lose to the Republicans. This means they still need to focus on increasing their white vote share in FL to about 40% or so (compared to Hillary's 32% in 2016).

This is why Florida is more likely to go hard right than hard left if it does move over the next decade.  Many of the FL retirement communities are already becoming pro-Trump political machines.  IMO this is also an underrated part of how the GOP stayed on top in NC.

Yes but Democrats keep on telling themselves that Puerto Rican’s are going to vote out the buffoon en masse and won’t notice what you’re saying until it’s too late

True, but your side is making the very same mistake in Texas and Arizona right now.

As an aside, it will be funny when, circa 2050, Millennial retirees are the strongest left-voting block and the youth vote is right-leaning!

[Skill and Chance]

You don't even need to project it forward. Just 15 or 20 years ago, retirees were a massively Democratic cohort because they were the old Depression FDR generation who have since mostly aged out of the electorate. Retirees aren't inherently Republican, it's just that the present cohort of them are pretty right wing. We might have a similar situation in the 2030s-2040s when all the late 1960s/1970 births (The Xers) retire, as they're a lean-GOP demographic, as well.

Yes, I don't think we are back in an old people = left-leaning scenario until 2050-2070 when the Millennials retire.  I do believe we are seeing a social conservative/economic left pattern with people born in the 2000's, which will surprise a lot of pundits.