Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,814
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« on: November 19, 2017, 04:36:59 PM » |
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Kansas and Alaska. Trump still had really strong appeal in LA/MS/AL, so I would place all of the Dem-trending western states ahead of them. Utah could end up electing a lot of R-caucusing Mormon independents and giving its electoral votes to a 3rd candidate a couple of times, with some similarities to the Dixiecrat situation in the mid 20th century. I would expect some Mormon 3rd party action in Idaho as well, probably not strong enough to get any pluralities statewide, but they could take ID-01 from the mainline Republicans. It won't help the Democrats statewide in any meaningful way, though, just Mormon R-Ind. vs. mainline R.
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