MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Skill and Chance]

Non-partisan ...?

Meaning there are no official nominees and all candidates are listed without party affiliation. Kind of like Mayoral elections in Chicago, I believe.

Still an oxymoron.

Why would candidates be listed without party affiliation in a US Senate race? Louisiana, California, and Georgia (only for special elections) have nonpartisan primaries with affiliation on listed on the ballot.

Same thing happened in a recent special for a state legislature seat.

So it would be Louisiana Rules Top Two with a runoff round if no one clears 50%?  Just like GA-06?  If so, and if Cochran actually does resign, it would be political malpractice not to run Jim Hood.  The Dem floor is already like 10% higher in MS than in AL and look how close the AL special is polling.

[Skill and Chance]

How does MS special election law work?  For Cochran's seat, the best case scenario for the MS GOP is likely to have Cochran hold out until 2020 to retire and then have the open seat race with Trump at the top of the ballot.  The worst case scenario would seem to be a special sometime in 2019/20 where the open senate seat is the only thing on the ballot and McDaniel runs.  Given that there is a statewide GE every year in MS, would the MS GOP prefer to have the extra senate seat on the ballot in Nov 2018 or have it coincide with the Gov and state legislative races in 2019?

[Skill and Chance]

Brandon Presley is an actual relative of Elvis, yes?

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like the odds of an R vs. R runoff just went way down. 

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like the odds of an R vs. R runoff just went way down. 

So did the odds of a D v D runoff.

That was completely implausible to begin with, with Hyde-Smith already in the seat. 

[Skill and Chance]

Big?

https://www.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/993915123197661184

Lean R -> Likely R.

But if Shelton was a dud and that's why he's dropping out, Lean R was a unrealistic rating to begin with.

Given special election turnout since Trump has been in office, I would automatically move anything that goes to a runoff one rating left of where it would otherwise be.  Lean R is justified here (and in e.g. GA-GOV) as long as there is a Dem in the runoff.

[Skill and Chance]

When is the jungle primary?

November 6.

I thought the runoff was the part that was going to coincide with election day.

The runoff is the election that will be held three weeks after election day on November 27.

Woah, that close to Thanksgiving?!  Lean D.