You better just count yourself lucky if Cuomo is not the Democratic nominee in 2020.
NYC will keep Cuomo in the Governor's mansion.
The Upstate + NYC minority support strategy could work, but it would work a lot better if NY had an open primary.
Oh that's precious, you think the NY Democratic Party is not bought and paid for.
They would obviously never have an open primary in NY. Still don't underestimate how many people have had enough of Clinton/Cuomo/McAuliffe type corporate Dems. Sure, NY is one of the best states in the country for that ideology, but the primary way this type of Dem has shored up their support is by getting left of their economic progressive opponent on social justice/identity issues. Cuomo can't credibly do that because of his feud with DeBlasio, who is perhaps the most social justice/identity oriented elected official in the country. Assuming DeBlasio endorses Miner, she will get over 40%. I would expect something like Northam vs. Perriello where Cuomo prevails on the sheer strength of the >$100K household income New York Times Dems, but only by about 55/45.