Is there a GOP path without Florida?

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, I could even see something as drastic as this happening:

281/257 Trump

Although I'm not at all sure Trump could hold onto NC in this world, and if he did, it would be in recount territory.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, I could even see something as drastic as this happening:

281/257 Trump

Although I'm not at all sure Trump could hold onto NC in this world, and if he did, it would be in recount territory.

Why would NM be closer than CO and NV? I also don't see NE-2 flipping unless democrats win a landslide like 2008 again. GA would probably go before that or even before NC.

Trump only won NE-02 by about 3% and he was under 50% total.  It's on par with NC and AZ now in competitiveness, and definitely ahead of GA.

I forgot to add the 50% shading to NM, but it does have some very "Trumpy" rural Dem areas that swung hard to him.  In the medium-long run, the more urban CO and NV might end up left of it.