ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[Skill and Chance]

I imagine that RCV will probably mean that Golden wins. I'm not sure we should write this off entirely in 2020. It's not like every Obama/Trump area went Republican this time. I think Trump wins it in a close race nationally, but probably by a significantly reduced margin.

With RCV now in use in federal races, does it apply to Maine's EVs as well?

Also, if EV-by-CD is just a law in Maine and not in the state constitution, the new Dem trifecta might want to change it back to statewide WTA?  But then Nebraska could and surely would retaliate.  Probably better to pass a law that only takes effect if Nebraska goes to statewide WTA first or if Nebraska's districts are gerrymandered in 2022?

[Skill and Chance]

It’s happening

https://twitter.com/cristinawmtw/status/1060830288639651845?s=21

Golden is likely going to win the 2nd round and if not the 2nd, almost surely the 3rd round given that both independents were left-leaning.  However, keep in mind that the final "round" of RCV could well be between Roberts and Kavanaugh given that RCV has never been ruled on in federal court and Poliquin hinted he would sue on OMOV grounds if he won the 1st round and later lost. 

A SCOTUS ruling on this could actually get quite weird, because Thomas believes there is no constitutional basis for OMOV whatsoever, so he could plausibly be the 5th vote to allow states to use RCV in a concurrence.  It's also very plausible Gorsuch rejects OMOV on originalist grounds.  Could also see one  or more of the liberals seeing this as a threat to the Warren Court decisions protecting urban voters in apportionment/redistricting and agreeing with Poliquin's OMOV appeal.  Something like Thomas and Gorsuch, concurring with Ginsburg, with Sotomayor and Breyer to uphold RCV in federal elections 5/4, with dissents by Roberts, joined by Alito and Kavanaugh, and by Kagan.  Alternatively, Gorsuch strongly upholds OMOV on originalist grounds or Breyer strategically joins Kagan and concurs with Roberts and RCV fails 5/4, or partisanship reigns and Roberts decides it for Poliquin or Roberts saves RCV for institutional "no, we aren't an arm of the Republican Party" reasons like he saved Obamacare.  5 of the 9 votes could be "shaky" here.  I'm only sure of Ginsburg and Sotomayor yes and Alito and Kavanaugh no.

[Skill and Chance]

I imagine that RCV will probably mean that Golden wins. I'm not sure we should write this off entirely in 2020. It's not like every Obama/Trump area went Republican this time. I think Trump wins it in a close race nationally, but probably by a significantly reduced margin.

With RCV now in use in federal races, does it apply to Maine's EVs as well?

Also, if EV-by-CD is just a law in Maine and not in the state constitution, the new Dem trifecta might want to change it back to statewide WTA?  But then Nebraska could and surely would retaliate.  Probably better to pass a law that only takes effect if Nebraska goes to statewide WTA first or if Nebraska's districts are gerrymandered in 2022?

Well apparently it was passed in 1969, and at first I wasn't sure if they just meant it went into effect after a previous amendment, but there is no EV amendment around that date:

http://legislature.maine.gov/lawlib/lldl/constitutionalamendments/index.html

So yes I think a simple statute change might work. I don't think it's even worth it though. It's just one EV, and like you said, it could inspire Nebraska to change. Although I guess NE has been trying to change theirs for a while now, so it's not exactly a novel idea for them. I'd be more worried about it triggering another round of scheming from Republicans, like that old RNC-backed idea where they wanted to use their large state-level power to change a bunch of states Democrats can win at the presidential level to CD-based allocation (like Virginia and Pennsylvania). Obviously they have a lot less to work with now, but still.

On principal I don't think it should be done unless in retaliation for another state having already done it.  However, every state going to EV-by-CD with nonpartisan redistricting and stricter compactness requirements for VRA districts would IMO be better than statewide WTA.  Every state going to fully proportional EV allocation according to the statewide PV with a 10% statewide minimum threshold to qualify for EV would be even better. 

[Skill and Chance]

Is there still a possibility that Golden gets a plurality (making a lawsuit pointless)?

If Poliquin's lawsuit to end ranked choice voting gets all the way to the U.S Supreme Court, how will the justices rule?

I think it'll be 5-4 in favor of Poliquin (similar reasoning to Bush v. Gore, just change the names of the justices involved...with the exception of Clarence Thomas), but what do you think?

While I could see the SCOTUS overturning RCV in future elections (I'm sure they could find some excuse if they felt like it) I don't think they're petty enough to overturn the will of the voters (who just voted under the assumption that it was RCV) for the sake of one House seat. I could be wrong.

I kind of think they will intentionally avoid any decisions that could be seen as radical until 2021, because they (at least Roberts and probably Kavanaugh) don't want to risk mainstream Democrats running on court packing in 2020.

Also, whatever the other Justices decide, the most plausible outcome for Thomas is a concurrence upholding RCV on "states can set whatever election laws they please" grounds.  He has written before that he would overturn the 1950's-60's OMOV decisions.  Would be wild if he ends up being decisive like in the NC gerrymandering case.

[Skill and Chance]

The dangerous legal argument here is "RCV should be thrown out because it is unconstitutional to change federal election procedures by voter intiative, because an initiative is not the legislature."  Roberts wrote a 4 Justice dissent based on that a couple years ago.  But it looks like Poliquin's lawyers haven't made this argument at all?  Poliquin almost surely won't be winning this suit on OMOV grounds, because Justice Thomas is on the record that he doesn't believe the Constitution requires OMOV in the first place.